Possible FIFA Rule Change Means Penalty Kicks Will Rule 2026 World Cup

The winner of the 2026 World Cup will likely be decided by penalty kicks.

At the last World Cup, Lionel Messi might have won the plaudits, but it was goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez’ saves that gave the victory to Argentina in penalty shootouts against the Netherlands and France.

This year, more than ever, penalty kick specialists could make the difference between World Cup glory and an early exit.

There are two reasons for that.

A World Cup Of Knockout Games

First, the tournament has a new format which adds an extra knockout round with 32 teams. That means reaching the knockout stages of the World Cup is equivalent to playing in the fourth round of the English FA Cup – there’s still a long, long road from that point to winning the trophy.

Over the past five men’s World Cup tournaments, 25.3% of knockout games (excluding third-place playoffs) have gone to penalties.

Other tournaments have similar statistics: of the knockout rounds of the past five European Championships, 23.7% have gone to penalties. For AFCON, it’s 27.1%; for the Asian Cup, 23.5%; and for Copa America, 40%.

Only two of the past five World Cup winners, Argentina in 2022 and Italy in 2006 have needed to win a penalty shootout on their way to World Cup glory. That’s quite low compared to recent Euros, not to mention AFCON and Copa America, which both required all five of the most recent winners to win a penalty shootout at one point.

But that extra knockout round in the 2026 World Cup increases the odds that the team lifting the trophy in New Jersey next summer will need to win at least one penalty shootout on the way.

In fact, there is just a 23% chance of winning the 2026 World Cup without relying on penalty kicks at some point.

Bigger World Cup Rosters Means Space For Specialists

Another reason for teams to select penalty kick specialists is that FIFA is considering allowing enlarged rosters of 30 players, expanded from the current 26.

With 26 players, there isn’t much room for any passengers. Injuries, suspensions and tactical changes mean that almost every player, bar the third-choice goalkeeper, could potentially play a part in at least one match.

But with those four extra slots, there is suddenly some room for teams to select penalty kick specialists to bring on in the last minute of extra time.

For England, that might mean Ivan Toney still has a shot at the national team as the 30th player, while for Brazil, it makes it more likely that Chelsea’s Joao Pedro, who scored five out of five penalties in the Premier League last season, is on the plane to the States.

Gone are the days when head coaches believe penalty shootouts are pure luck. Teams that meticulously prepare penalties tend to be more successful, and many coaches even consider the smallest details such as where to stand while waiting for the next kick to gain the upper hand psychologically.

Some teams that are strong at penalty kicks and defense could focus their tactics toward aiming to draw knockout games 0-0 and try to progress through the tournament by winning shootouts.

Morocco Provides World Cup Blueprint

Morocco in 2022 might have shown other underdogs a route to the latter stages of the World Cup.

Morocco kept four clean sheets in its first five matches in Qatar, and as knockout games reward strong defenses more than group stage games, the added emphasis on knockout soccer at the 2026 World Cup means defensive tactics and playing counterattacking soccer while being willing to wait for penalty kicks might become a common tactic.

This week, the Morocco under-20 side reached the final of the U-20 World Cup by focusing on penalty kicks, bringing on three specialist penalty takers and a new goalkeeper at the end of the semifinal against France and going on to win the subsequent shootout.

Combining a tough defense with penalty specialists could be a route for underdogs to overperform in the knockout rounds of the 2026 World Cup.