Crypto’s favorite question: bull or bear? might be the wrong one this time. As the crypto market wrestles with its identity in late 2025, traders and analysts alike are stuck trying to slap a label on a market that feels anything but labelable.
Crypto prices aren’t soaring like they did in 2021’s parabolic highs, but we’re far from the despair of a true bear. So, what gives?
Crypto trader Dan Gambardello breaks it down. Maybe we’re in the “forgotten chapter” of the cycle.
The same kind of quiet stretch seen between July and September 2019, when markets were treading water, the Federal Reserve ended quantitative tightening (QT), and the crypto market seemed stuck in a strange limbo before its next big move.
The Ghost of 2019
Remember the crypto news from back in July 2019? The Fed formally announced the end of QT, a reversal that signaled a subtle but important shift in global liquidity.
A few months later, in September, policy tightening officially stopped. That came just ahead of a modest rally that set the stage for the 2020–2021 explosion.
Now, history appears to rhyme. The Fed has once again declared the end of QT, expected to take effect this December.
In both instances, macro liquidity had begun to turn, but confidence in crypto prices hadn’t caught up yet.
“The end of quantitative tightening just got announced,” Gambardello says in the video. It’s not the top of a bull market, he argues. It’s also not the bottom of a bear. “It’s this in‑between area.”
That “in‑between” is often forgotten in crypto news. Yet it’s precisely where cycles reset. In 2019, Bitcoin’s risk score hovered around 42, almost identical to its current level of 43. While prices may differ, sentiment echoes the same uncertainty.
Crypto Market Risk Metrics and Echoes of Patience
“If you believe the end of QT will lead to a liquidity boost, consider accumulating during any dips leading up to December 2025s,” Gambardello notes.
His AI‑driven system, called Zero, suggests deploying capital rationally, identifying risk zones rather than chasing momentum.
In 2019, he says, Ethereum’s risk model sat at 11, while today it’s at 44. Cardano’s is at 29. These numbers, derived from volatility and sentiment data, help macro investors map accumulation zones rather than emotionally trade swings.
A drop back to the 30s or 20s could present the kind of accumulation opportunity that long‑term holders dream of in the crypto market.
Glassnode data supports that pattern. During mid‑cycle consolidations, long‑term holder supply often grows as speculative traders exit.
In 2019, Bitcoin’s long‑term holders reached over 644% of total supply; in 2025, it’s again near that same level. Patience, it seems, is the quiet investor’s edge.
The Chart Whispers
On Ethereum’s weekly chart, the setup looks eerily familiar. In July 2019, just after QT ended, Ethereum tested its 20‑week moving average, bounced, then sank before recovering months later.
This summer, the same 20‑50 week crossover unfolded; another reminder of the cyclical push and pull between hope and exhaustion.
The invalidation point, Gambardello explains, would be if Ethereum breaks above the 20‑week moving average. That’s short‑term confirmation we’re not repeating 2019.
Otherwise, a temporary dip to the $3 trillion total market cap range (down from today’s 3.6 trillion, per CoinMarketCap) might resemble that old script: sharp enough to scare retail, but not deep enough to kill the uptrend.
A Different Decade, Same Psychology in the Crypto Market
Of course, 2025 isn’t 2019. The crypto news has different headlines, and the macro stage looks radically different.
A pro‑crypto US administration is in place. The Clarity Act and GENIUS Act have largely ended the regulatory roulette that once kept investors awake at night. Ethereum ETFs are live.
Stablecoin issuers are regulated. And BlackRock now sits comfortably atop $25 billion in crypto ETF assets.
That kind of institutional muscle doesn’t vanish overnight. Instead, it changes the game’s tempo, transforming markets that once lived on adrenaline into spaces managed with spreadsheets and stress tests.
What we’re witnessing may not be another bull or bear market, but something more subtle: a transition inside the larger monetary weather system.
The Fed’s liquidity pivot, a new incoming chair by May, and regulatory normalization could combine to make 2025 the quiet setup before another push higher.
Gambardello doesn’t believe we’re entering a bear market, but rather an “annoying kind of consolidation” in crypto prices.
Annoying, yes. But maybe necessary. If the 2019 crypto market taught us anything, it’s that boredom is often the prelude to a breakout.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/11/02/the-forgotten-phase-why-the-crypto-market-might-be-stuck-between-cycles/
