Crypto Market: Traders Claim the Bear Market Has Begun, but One Major Signal Is Missing

Key Insights

• Many crypto market traders believe the bear market is already here, but several signals do not match a real cycle top.
• The Pi Cycle Top indicator, which has called the last three tops, has not triggered yet.
• Past bear markets only began after a confirmed top, not before it, which suggests this cycle may still have room left.

The crypto market has been falling for weeks. Many traders now believe the bear market has already begun.

The total market cap was near $3.94 trillion on 6 October. It corrected to $3.59 trillion on 11 November. It then dropped again to almost $3.20 trillion this week. These are big moves, so fear is rising fast.

But when we place all signals side by side, the picture is not complete. Several charts show weakness. But the main top signal for Bitcoin has not appeared yet.

Crypto Market: Traders Think Bear Market Already Started

Many shared charts point to some tension for the crypto prices. One chart shows Bicoin USD heading lower than the 50-week moving average.

A moving average shows the average price over time, and traders watch it to track the price and market trend.

Older charts compare the 2025 to 2015–2018 and 2018–2021 (4-year moves). In those charts, the peak looks like it formed in late October.

This made the correction look like the start of a new downtrend. Do note that it was in October when the Bitcoin price hit a new peak of $126,000.

Some on-chain charts show long-term holders moving coins. The rise in CDD suggests older coins are transferring, which can look like early selling.

ETFs also added pressure. Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows after months of inflows. But the full picture shows something else: total Bitcoin ETF inflows are still above $60 billion, and several big funds continue to add.

So, each chart looks serious on its own. This is why many people now say the bear phase for crypto market is already here.

Why These Signals Do Not Match a Real Cycle Top

A real Bitcoin cycle top has a clear pattern. None of these signals matches it.

The Pi Cycle Top model is the most important part. It uses two moving averages.

When they cross, it is called the last three Bitcoin tops within days. It is simple and has a strong track record.

Right now, these lines are still far apart. The model has not flashed.

If the top already happened for the crypto, the Pi signal should have appeared by now.

Bear markets also follow a clear timing rule. In every crypto market cycle, the bear market begins only after the cycle top.

Never before it. Not even once.

Past tops also came with fast price jumps, heavy profit-taking, and huge inflows into Bitcoin. None of that happened here.

This correction was slow, not explosive. CDD is rising, but not sharply. And ETF flows are mixed, not extreme.

Bitcoin also reacts faster to dips than to rallies. This was noted in recent market reports. So the latest drop can look deeper than it really is.

Why This Crypto Market Cycle Still Looks Unfinished?

This cycle has new forces that did not exist in older ones.

Bitcoin ETFs hold billions worth of Bitcoin. These flows move daily and can create short-term pressure. But they also add long-term support. Several funds still increased their holdings this month.

Long-term holders are selling into weakness this time. In past crypto market cycles, they sold into strength. This shows uncertainty, not a completed top.

And the Pi Cycle Top model still has not signaled. It has never missed an actual Bitcoin top. It signaled in 2013, 2017, and 2021, all close to the actual peak.

Today, the lines are still far away. This matters because the crypto bear market has always started only after the Pi signal.

Not before it. Only after the marked top. So the crypto prices can still fall in the short term. But the evidence does not show a finished cycle.