Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: Options Traders Price in 7% Move After Wednesday Earnings

TLDR

• Nvidia reports Q3 FY26 earnings on Wednesday, November 19, with options indicating a potential $320 billion swing in market value
• Wall Street expects $54.8 billion in revenue (up 56% year-over-year) and earnings of $1.25 per share (up 54%)
• Options traders are pricing in a 7% move in either direction, which would be the largest post-earnings swing ever for the company
• The stock has pulled back 10% from its late October record high, pressured by high-profile investor exits including Peter Thiel’s hedge fund
• NVDA holds a Strong Buy rating from analysts with a price target of $242, suggesting 30% upside potential

Options traders are pricing in a massive move. Data from Option Research & Technology Services shows the market expects a 7% swing in either direction. At Nvidia’s current $4.6 trillion market value, that translates to a potential $320 billion change.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

This would be the largest one-day market value shift following earnings in the company’s history. The previous record was $276 billion in February 2024.

Wall Street has set the bar high. Analysts project revenue of $54.8 billion for the quarter. That represents 56% growth compared to last year.

Earnings per share are expected to hit $1.25. This would mark a 54% increase from the same quarter in 2023. The company has beaten expectations 90% of the time over the past five years.

The data center business continues to drive growth. However, China-related sales face headwinds. U.S. export restrictions on advanced AI chips mean zero revenue from H20 chip sales to China in Q3.

These restrictions could cut several billion dollars from potential revenue. The impact extends beyond this quarter.

Market Pressure Builds

Nvidia shares are up 38% for the year. But the stock has retreated 10% since hitting a record high in late October.

Recent investor exits have added pressure. Billionaire Peter Thiel’s hedge fund sold its position. SoftBank also exited the stock.

The broader tech sector has pulled back too. Concerns about AI stock valuations and sustainability of the rally are weighing on sentiment.

Vera Rubin represents Nvidia’s next-generation AI superchip system. It offers major improvements in compute power and memory for training large AI models.

What’s at Stake

Chris Murphy from Susquehanna pointed out the ripple effects. Nvidia’s 8% weighting in the S&P 500 gives the results extra importance.

The earnings report will shape sentiment across semiconductors, hyperscalers, and AI infrastructure. Murphy noted that while the stock may move 7%, the narrative impact could extend across $10 trillion worth of related trades.

Venture capitalists at last month’s Cerebral Valley AI Summit in San Francisco expressed confidence in Nvidia’s future. Kleiner Perkins partner Ilya Fushman and investor Elad Gil acknowledged bubble concerns but see continued investment opportunities in AI.

They estimated Nvidia could reach a $6 trillion valuation by 2026. But they also warned that a misstep could shake the entire AI ecosystem.

Investors are watching for signals about AI spending trends. Jason Pride from Glenmede said the results carry implications for business investment and AI-related spending across the economy.

On average, Nvidia stock has moved 7.3% the day after reporting results over the last 12 quarters. TipRanks shows NVDA holds a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 37 Buy ratings, one Hold, and one Sell. The average price target of $242 implies 30% upside from current levels.

The company has consistently delivered. The question now is whether it can maintain momentum in a market growing wary of AI valuations.

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