Bitcoin’s Next ‘Supercycle’ Hinges On One Thing: National Adoption, Exec Says

ProCap chief investment officer Jeff Park has outlined what he believes could cause Bitcoin to surge dramatically and hit the next “supercycle”: a government purchase by a major developed nation.

According to reports, Park said the move would have to be genuine, not a rumor or a marketing stunt. He estimated that such an action could send Bitcoin to roughly $150,000, a 76% increase from its current price of $84,500.

Sovereign Adoption Could Trigger Bitcoin Surge

Park explained that only a true purchase by an OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) country could spark a rapid price spike.

“It would have to be real,” he said, emphasizing that previous hype and false signals from governments have not had the same effect.

Analysts and traders would likely react immediately if a nation officially announced adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet.

Quantum Uncertainty Weighs On Investors

Some investors are also keeping a close eye on quantum computing risks. They suggested nation-state adoption might happen sooner than expected, shifting from gradual to sudden.

Analysts recommended transferring coins to SegWit-compatible addresses as a temporary safety measure until a quantum-safe protocol is available.

Park said clarity on quantum risk could reduce selling pressure among long-term holders.

Recent Bitcoin activity shows big holders are taking profits. Glassnode reported on Nov. 14 that long-term holders have been realizing gains throughout the cycle, consistent with past patterns.

Despite this, prices have dropped sharply from last month’s high above $126,000 to just above $84,000, wiping out all 2025 gains.

Standard Chartered warned that falling below $90,000 could put about half of crypto treasury firms at risk.

Citi analyst Alex Saunders noted $80,000 is a key level because it matches the average cost basis of bitcoin ETF holders.

Analysts are warning that deeper losses could follow. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone suggested Bitcoin might mirror the 2018 crash, with potential declines toward $50,000 or even $10,000 in a severe scenario.

Financial analyst Clem Chambers projected a possible range of $40,000 to $60,000 if market conditions worsen.

Park highlighted that stopping the selling pressure – through what he calls a “black swan” event – could let buying activity influence prices more effectively.

Reports indicate that any confirmed sovereign purchase or clear statement on quantum safety could shift investor sentiment.

For now, the market faces mixed signals: one potential catalyst for sharp gains exists, but near-term pressures and uncertainty remain strong.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView