A Means Of Lasting Peace In Ukraine

As diplomats and other country representatives continue to explore pathways toward peace in the Russia Ukraine War, one reality remains inescapable: No peace agreement can endure without credible security guarantees, and nowhere are those guarantees more essential than in the air.

Airspace violations are not abstract hypotheticals. They are tangible, destabilizing acts of aggression. Russia’s recent incursions into Poland’s and Estonia’s sovereign airspace with combat aircraft were intentional border violations. The fastest way for Russia to undermine a settlement with Ukraine would be to send a bomber, fighter, cruise missile, or drone across Ukraine’s borders after a “peace” settlement was reached.

This is why credible airpower guarantees are central to any agreement designed to end the war while securing Ukraine’s sovereignty and preserving stability in Europe.

The lessons of the past three and half years are clear. Russia has relied heavily on long-range missile strikes, Iranian-supplied (then Russian produced) cruise missiles/drones, and airspace intimidation to terrorize Ukrainian cities and grind down civilian morale. Absent robust protection from the skies, Ukraine has been forced into a war of attrition resembling the worst of World War I. Preventing a repeat of this outcome requires a serious discussion of what “security guarantees from the air” mean in practice.

The Three Pillars of Airpower Guarantees

There are three pillars to securing Ukraine’s enduring safety from above: 1) a robust air defense umbrella, 2) a modern and sufficient Ukrainian Air Force, and 3) visible allied backing. Together, these can create a layered system of deterrence, protection, and stability.

1. A Robust Air Defense Umbrella

The first line of defense must be an integrated air defense network, capable of detecting, tracking, and intercepting hostile threats across multiple altitudes and ranges. This means modern surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems, anti-aircraft artillery (AAA), air defense fighters, and associated sensors fused into a common operational picture. Ukraine has already demonstrated ingenuity in operating Western systems like Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T, F-16 and Mirage fighter jets alongside Soviet-era equipment. But to secure its future, these systems must be expanded, modernized, and tied together into a seamless defensive web covering major cities, military bases, and critical infrastructure.

Ground-based defenses must be linked directly to Ukraine’s air forces, ensuring smooth handoff between missile batteries and combat aircraft. This integration of air and ground-based assets—backed by robust electronic warfare defenses—with air defense aircraft, both Ukrainian, and from other supporting country air defense aircraft will make it far more difficult for Russia to exploit seams in coverage.

2. A Modern Ukrainian Fighter Force

The second pillar is a capable and sufficient Ukrainian fighter force. Ukraine’s nascent F-16 and Mirage fighter force represents a turning point from Cold War-era Russian hardware, but its fleet is far too small to meet the threat posed by Russia’s air force and missile arsenal. A credible airpower guarantee requires sufficient numbers of aircraft operated by Ukraine itself.

Ukraine recently signed memorandums to procure significant numbers of both Rafale and JAS 39 Gripen fighters over the next 10-15 years. The numbers are for over 100 each, but the need is now. Current plans are for the transfer of approximately 85 F-16s from European allies—sufficient to sustain continuous combat air patrols, respond to incursions, and, when necessary, strike the launch points of any Russian hostile acts. But they will also require modern long range missiles, weapons integration, AESA radar upgrades, and an advanced Electronic Warfare suite. Without this capacity in the near-term, Ukraine will remain reactive, always working hard to catch up to Russian salvos. With it—along with the F-16 enhancements mentioned above—Ukraine can establish persistent presence over its own territory and ensure rapid, highly effective retaliatory options.

Numbers matter. A handful of fighters cannot cover a nation the size of Ukraine. But a fighter force in the triple digits—augmented by Western training, maintenance support, with modernization upgrades and backed by additional allied aircraft—would send a clear signal to Moscow that Ukrainian skies are not conducive to their terror.

3. Allied Backing

Airpower guarantees require allied presence. NATO’s Baltic Air Policing mission provides a ready model, that could be emulated by rotating allied squadrons over Ukrainian airspace or along its borders, both to reassure Ukraine and to deter Russia.

European nation’s air- and ground-based air defense systems operated inside Ukraine by the nations providing them are key to ensuring a security guarantee regimen. These assets could protect peacekeeping coalition forces monitoring the agreement on the ground; humanitarian forces and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) involved in reconstruction; and the Ukrainian civilian population. While this could possibly be accomplished from inside Poland or Romania, allied forces operating inside Ukraine’s borders would achieve a greater deterrent effect.

A key part of the air defense portion of Ukraine’s security guarantee would be the establishment of a combined integrated command and control structure that can unify Ukraine’s ground-based air defenses with Ukraine’s air force, along with the international air forces providing the allied air presence. This is the lynchpin tying all these critical elements together to coherently and effectively respond to any Russian violation.

European nations can provide this support without Ukraine joining the NATO alliance. Rather, NATO would extend deterrence and assurance in practice: If Russia violates Ukrainian sovereignty in the air, allied aircraft and ground-based air defenses would be standing by to respond. Such visible presence—shared among American, British, Polish, French, and other NATO allies—would make clear that violations are not just attacks on Ukraine, but challenges to a collective commitment to Ukraine’s security.

Combined, these three pillars would give real teeth to any security guarantee, ensuring that Ukraine’s skies are not left vulnerable to the weapons Russia employs to terrorize Ukraine’s people.

Hostile Acts and Rules of Engagement

Guarantees only matter if they are enforceable. That requires clear definitions of what constitutes a hostile act, and equally clear rules of engagement (ROE) to guide the response.

At a minimum, hostile acts should be explicitly defined as:

• Any Russian military aircraft entering Ukrainian sovereign airspace without clearance.
• Any Russian missile or drone launched into Ukraine from Russian or Belarusian territory.
• Any electronic warfare activity directed at degrading or blinding Ukrainian air defenses.

Associated rules of engagement could then be codified as follows:

• Immediate intercept and escort of unauthorized Russian aircraft out of Ukrainian airspace.
• Lethal engagement authorization if a Russian aircraft, missile, or drone poses an imminent threat.
• Establishment of “tripwires:” A single violation triggers warning and diplomatic protest, while repeated violations trigger automatic kinetic response.

Definitions and rules must leave no ambiguity. Russia must know exactly what actions cross the line and what consequences to expect. Ambiguity breeds miscalculation: clarity deters it.

Consequences That Deter

Airpower guarantees fail if they amount to empty threats. Credibility rests on consequences. Russia’s history makes clear that Russians only respect power.

If Russia sends a bomber or fighter across the Ukrainian border, that aircraft should not return. If Russia fires missiles after a ceasefire, the launch sites and associated command-and-control nodes must become targets for rapid retaliation and elimination. If electronic warfare units attempt to disrupt Ukrainian defenses, those units must be swiftly neutralized.

Such consequences are not about escalation. They are about restoring deterrence and providing a security guarantee by ensuring that violations are too costly to repeat. Absent this, Russia will test limits endlessly, whittling away at any agreement until it collapses.

Why Airpower Is Central

Airpower guarantees are not a peripheral issue. They are central to the very possibility of a lasting peace, for three reasons:

1. Deterrence. Russia must know that violations will be met immediately and decisively. The speed and reach of airpower make it uniquely suited to respond in real time.
2. Protection. Ukraine must shield its cities, infrastructure, and troops from renewed bombardment. Only layered air defenses—capable of providing both lethal and non-lethal effects—can provide that shield.
3. Stability. Without credible air guarantees, any settlement risks unraveling the moment Russia tests Ukrainian airspace. With them, diplomacy has a chance to succeed.

Put simply: airpower is the guarantor of peace on terms that prevent Moscow from dictating conditions through coercion.

The Bottom Line

At the end of the day, security guarantees from the air are not about hardware alone. They are about credibility.

If Ukraine’s skies are defended by robust, integrated air defenses, if its fighter force is expanded to credible numbers, and if allied aircraft and ground-based air defenses participate to reinforce deterrence, then Russia will think twice before violating a settlement. That is the difference between a fragile pause in hostilities and the foundation of a lasting peace.

History offers too many examples of agreements that collapsed because deterrence was not enforced. Ukraine cannot afford to repeat those mistakes. Airpower guarantees are the best way to ensure that any settlement reached is more than a piece of paper—but instead form the foundation for a just and enduring peace.