Bitcoin Price Fights to Hold $84K as RSI and Derivatives Show Exhaustion

TLDR

• Bitcoin sits below short-term holder realized price in oversold range.

• ETF outflows ease while derivatives show unwinding not short buildup.

• BTC price action resembles 2021 cycle but shows more stable footing.

• Charts reveal potential reversal pattern forming near key trendline.

Bitcoin price extended its weekly decline, falling below the prior $90,000 support and briefly touching the $80,000 region before bouncing. The market now finds itself in what analysts are calling a structural no-man’s-land, trading beneath key short-term holder realized prices but above deeper long-term levels. This setup leaves Bitcoin suspended between past demand zones and possible reversal regions.

According to Glassnode, recent behavior matches key characteristics of previous cycle drawdowns. The current structure shows descending resistance and tight compression, which resemble the 2021 bear cycle. However, the mid-$80,000 support range has held firm, leading to a new staircase pattern forming, one with more orderly retracements.

Bitcoin Derivatives and Spot Data Suggest Less Speculation

Momentum indicators like the 14-day RSI remain in oversold territory, though a small uptick suggests waning downward momentum. Futures and perpetual contract CVDs (Cumulative Volume Delta) are still negative, pointing to reduced speculative activity.

Open Interest across derivatives has stayed relatively flat during the decline, which signals that this correction may be driven more by position unwinding than leveraged short entries. Meanwhile, options markets remain cautious. Elevated put skew and tight volatility spreads reflect expectations of continued turbulence, but without panic-driven premiums.

Source: X

On the spot market, daily volumes dropped as ETF outflows persisted. The lack of large-volume panic selling supports the notion of a gradual de-risking phase rather than mass capitulation.

On-Chain Data Confirms Late-Stage Correction

On-chain activity remained subdued. Glassnode reports that transfer volumes, fee revenues, and realized cap changes have all softened in recent days.

These metrics suggest a lower network usage typical of risk-off behavior during market corrections.

Profitability indicators such as Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Realized P/L continue to deteriorate. The shift toward a greater proportion of short-term holders in loss mirrors patterns seen at the tail end of previous bear markets. Historically, these are periods when the market has started forming a base.

Technical Setup Mirrors 2021 But With a Stronger Floor

One prominent analyst noted that the chart structure looks similar to Bitcoin’s late-2021 descending triangle. However, instead of collapsing below support as it did then, Bitcoin is currently forming a more constructive pattern. The mid-$82,000 to $84,000 region has acted as a consistent defense zone.

Moreover, each rebound from this zone has formed a staircase of higher lows, contrasting with sharper breakdowns from the earlier cycle. This gentler slope lowers structural stress and may signal a buildup to a breakout attempt.

The current descending trendline also aligns with this interpretation. Bitcoin’s daily chart shows coiling behavior beneath this trendline, which often precedes breakout moves. A sustained break above the $93,000 region would indicate the start of a stronger recovery.

Analysts Watch the $84K–$90K Range for Clues

Market watchers are closely tracking how Bitcoin behaves in the $84,000 to $90,000 range. This band now serves as a potential base for structural support.

Should Bitcoin manage to reclaim short-term holder realized prices and flip the trendline, confidence in a recovery may rise.

However, as ETF outflows remain and short-term profitability remains low, any upward move will need sustained demand. Until then, Bitcoin remains in a phase of orderly correction rather than breakout, though early signs suggest the foundation for a reversal is being laid.

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