Bitcoin Has a Greater Chance of a Deeper Drop Than a Rebound, Says Bloomberg Strategist

One of the strongest cautionary voices is coming from Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, who believes the cryptocurrency may be entering a more challenging phase after months of momentum-driven gains.

Changing Market Environment

McGlone argued that the catalysts powering Bitcoin earlier in the year — including liquidity from spot ETF inflows, the halving cycle and increased political support — are no longer pushing the market forward. He described the current setup as typical of the late stage of a bull cycle, where enthusiasm lingers while price structure begins to deteriorate.

Crypto as a whole has reflected that shift. The Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index has fallen 21%, signaling that recent weakness is not isolated to Bitcoin. BTC itself is down around 10% year-over-year, despite outperforming for much of the spring and summer.

Lack of Stress in Equities Raises Red Flag

What concerns McGlone most is not the crypto sell-off on its own, but what other markets are not doing. The VIX — Wall Street’s volatility benchmark — remains low, which he interprets as a sign that broader markets have yet to react to the deterioration in digital assets. He believes that this disconnect increases the risk of a later shift into risk-off positioning.

Technical Levels Take Center Stage

McGlone puts less weight on sentiment and more on the chart. In his view, $84,000 is the level Bitcoin must defend if the market wants to maintain its broader bullish structure. A move below that price could imply a transition into a deeper correction.

Upside resistance sits near $94,000, but McGlone sees it as secondary in importance to the vulnerability of support. If the lower boundary breaks, he thinks a move toward $50,000 becomes increasingly realistic — not because Bitcoin has failed fundamentally, but because that region has historically acted as a major price pivot during 2020 and 2021.

A More Bearish Perspective Than the Consensus

McGlone’s assessment contrasts with the prevailing expectations of a year-end recovery among retail investors and some institutional desks. While not ruling out a rebound, he believes that the probability of a retest of lower historical levels is currently higher than the probability of a sharp resurgence.

The next weeks — and particularly Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $84,000 — will determine whether the strategist’s concerns become shared more widely across the market.



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