Analysis ETHUSDT at crossroads: bears defend 2900?

Summary

On the daily chart, the asset trades around 2920, clearly below the 20, 50 and 200-day exponential moving averages, confirming a dominant bearish regime. Momentum is weak, with RSI stuck in the mid-30s and MACD still negative, even if its histogram hints at early stabilization. Moreover, Bollinger Bands show price leaning toward the lower area of the range, consistent with sustained downside pressure rather than a healthy consolidation. Volatility on the higher timeframe remains elevated, as indicated by a daily ATR above 200, meaning intraday swings can still be violent in either direction. However, on the hourly and 15-minute charts, volatility has compressed, signaling a short-term cooling phase inside a larger downtrend. Investor sentiment across the crypto market is dominated by fear, and liquidity appears cautious rather than aggressive.

Market Context and Direction

The broader backdrop is not particularly supportive for aggressive risk-taking. Total crypto market capitalization stands above 3.09 trillion dollars, with a modest 24-hour increase of about 0.76%, signaling that the market is stabilizing but not in full risk-on mode. Bitcoin commands roughly 56.4% of the total capitalization, an elevated share that typically points to dominance of defensive positioning in large caps rather than a broad-based altcoin rally. Moreover, the Fear & Greed Index sits deep in the “Extreme Fear” zone at 15, showing that many traders are still in capital-preservation mode.

In this climate, it is not surprising that the daily regime for the pair is labeled bearish. The asset is underperforming its medium and long-term trend references, and rallies are more likely to be seen as opportunities to reduce risk rather than to chase upside. That said, extreme fear can also precede turning points, especially when technical indicators start to signal downside exhaustion.

Technical Outlook: reading the overall setup

On the daily timeframe, price closes near 2920, while the 20-day EMA sits around 3118, the 50-day EMA near 3482, and the 200-day EMA around 3520. This stacked configuration, with price below all three curves, reflects well-established downside momentum and lack of trend confirmation for any bounce. For medium-term investors, the gap between spot and the 200-day average underlines that the market has not yet repaired the damage done by recent selloffs.

The daily RSI at about 36.6 confirms this picture. It is below the neutral 50 line, signaling bearish momentum, but not yet in deep oversold territory. This suggests that selling pressure remains present, yet there is still room for further declines before an outright capitulation-style rebound becomes likely. Meanwhile, the MACD line is negative at around -221, with the signal line near -232, and the histogram slightly positive around 10. The negative lines show that the medium-term trend is down, but the positive histogram points to early signs of momentum loss on the downside, often a precondition for a consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart place the middle band close to 3131, the upper band near 3645, and the lower band around 2616. With price trading well below the midline and closer to the lower band, the market remains in a pressure zone where downside probes are more common than sustained breakouts higher. However, the fact that price is not pinned exactly at the lower band hints that the most aggressive part of the selloff may already be behind us, at least temporarily.

The daily ATR of roughly 203 points underscores an environment of elevated volatility expansion. Swings of several percentage points in a single day are still routine, which means position sizing and risk limits matter more than usual. Pivot levels add context: the daily pivot point lies near 2939, with the first resistance area around 2965 and first support near 2896. Trading just under the pivot suggests that bears maintain a slight tactical edge, and a sustained recovery above that zone would be the first small sign that short-term sentiment is improving.

Intraday Perspective and ETHUSDT token Momentum

On the hourly chart, the picture is more balanced. Price hovers around 2920, sandwiched between an EMA20 close to 2934, an EMA50 just below 2910, and an EMA200 near 2919. This clustering of averages reflects a short-term neutral regime, where neither bulls nor bears dominate intraday. The hourly RSI near 48 is close to equilibrium, reinforcing the idea that the recent move has paused rather than accelerated.

Meanwhile, the hourly MACD is slightly negative, with the line a bit above 8 and the signal around 12, producing a small negative histogram. This points to a minor loss of upward momentum after a brief bounce, consistent with a market digesting previous volatility. Bollinger Bands on H1 show a midline near 2934, with upper and lower bands at roughly 2979 and 2889, while ATR sits around 31. As a result, short-term volatility is relatively contained compared with the daily chart, hinting at a consolidation pocket inside a larger, more volatile downtrend.

The 15-minute chart echoes this stance. Price is slightly below its short EMAs, with the 20 and 50-period averages clustered around 2937 2939, and the 200-period average around 2911. The intraday RSI at about 38 signals mild bearish bias, and MACD is marginally negative, showing that micro structure still favors sellers on very short horizons. Yet, ATR near 11 indicates tight ranges, suggesting that fast scalpers are operating in a more mechanical, range-trading environment rather than in a trending one.

Key Levels and Market Reactions

From a levels perspective, the market is currently oscillating just below a daily pivot near 2939. If buyers manage to reclaim that area and hold above the first resistance region around 2965, the move could act as a short-term breakout trigger for mean-reversion players, aiming for the 20-day EMA zone closer to 3100 3150. Conversely, repeated failures below the pivot, followed by a slip under the first support near 2896, would keep the focus on the lower Bollinger Band area around 2616 as a potential downside magnet.

Intraday, the 2928 hourly pivot and the nearby 2941 resistance define a tight battlefield. A push above this pocket with rising volume would validate the idea that intraday traders are starting to front-run a potential daily stabilization. If instead price keeps fading near this ceiling and slides below hourly support near 2907, it would confirm that the bears still control short-term liquidity shifts.

Future Scenarios and Investment Outlook

Overall, the main scenario remains bearish on the daily timeframe, with the asset trading below all major EMAs, a subdued RSI, and a still negative MACD. Short-term charts show a neutral to mildly negative bias, pointing more to consolidation than to a fresh impulsive leg. For swing traders, this suggests a focus on fading rallies into resistance while carefully watching for any decisive shift in momentum that could signal a more durable bottoming process. Longer-term investors may prefer to wait for clearer confirmations, such as a recovery above the 20-day EMA and a move in daily RSI back toward the 50 zone, before reassessing risk exposure.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
Readers should conduct their own research before making investment decisions.