Bitcoin Price Stuck in a 6% Trap as Downside Risk Quietly Builds

Bitcoin has traded almost flat this week. It is up about 1% in the last 24 hours but still down nearly 21% over the past 30 days. Over the past 7 days, the Bitcoin price has barely moved at all. This tight behavior reflects a clear range: Bitcoin has been stuck inside the same 6% zone while buyers and sellers continue to cancel each other out.

Under the surface, the balance looks fragile. And the combination of technicals and on-chain metrics keeps the downside risk open unless conditions shift very quickly.

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Triangle Range Holds, But Bitcoin Sits Near The Breakdown Line

The Bitcoin price has been moving inside a broad triangle on the 12-hour chart. The upper trend line rejected all breakout attempts on November 28 and November 30. A breakdown attempt also showed up briefly on December 1, but buyers managed to recover before the candle closed.

Now the price sits very close to the rising lower trend line, which aligns almost perfectly with the $85,664 support. From the current zone around $86,949, Bitcoin needs only a 1.5% drop to break the structure. In comparison, a breakout requires a 5% move toward $91,637, which makes the upside path much harder in the short term.

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Money-flow adds more context.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether big money is flowing in or out, has been climbing since November 21. It is still forming higher lows and remains above zero. This is the main reason the Bitcoin price has not broken down yet. This could reflect ETF inflows or large-wallet buying.

But CMF is also sitting close to its own rising trend line. If it slips under that line or falls back below zero, the breakdown risk increases sharply.

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Until then, Bitcoin continues to bounce between $85,664 and $91,637, the boundaries of its 6% indecision zone.

Short-Term Buyers And Long-Term Sellers Create A Delicate Tug-Of-War

On-chain data also explains why the Bitcoin price remains stuck.

Long-term holders continue to sell. The Long-Term Holder Net Position Change stayed red all month and has worsened since early November. On November 4, net outflows sat near 48,620 BTC. By December 1, the value had climbed to roughly 194,600 BTC, more than 300% higher than the earlier reading. This means conviction-based holders are still reducing exposure.

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Short-term holders, however, keep adding.

The Total Supply Held by Short-Term Holders has risen to about 2.63 million BTC, sitting less than 1% below its three-month high. Sounds bullish, right? Well, not exactly.

This group is made up of speculative traders. They can exit very quickly, which often amplifies downside moves.

So the tug-of-war looks like this: Long-term holders are selling (bearish). Short-term holders are buying (strong but speculative). And, CMF rising (supporting the range but close to invalidation).

This keeps Bitcoin locked between both sides instead of trending strongly.

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Key Bitcoin Price Levels: A Small Drop Can Trigger A Larger Move

From here, the Bitcoin price can move either way:

Downside path: A 12-hour close below $85,664 breaks the triangle, and likely pulls Bitcoin toward $83,811. If the selling continues, the next zone sits at $80,599, the current cycle low.

Upside path: A break above $91,637 is the minimum trigger for upside strength. If the price clears it while CMF rises toward the 0.11 zone, Bitcoin can attempt a move toward $93,780. But this path requires more work and more buyer strength than the downside level requires from sellers.

Right now, the chart leans slightly toward the downside: long-term holders keep selling, speculative buyers dominate, the price sits near the lower trend line, and CMF — while supportive — is just above its own limit.

Unless the upper range breaks first, Bitcoin likely stays inside its 6% indecision zone, with the risk of a sharper move if $85,664 fails.