Bitcoin’s recent downturn may extend far longer than traders expect, according to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju. Yong Ju says the market now appears “more bearish than I expected,” with weak liquidity conditions likely delaying any strong recovery for 3–6 months.
Ju explained that macro liquidity, not the on-chain cycle, is driving Bitcoin’s trajectory, noting that dollar liquidity is tightening while risk assets face persistent selling.
The CryptoQuant founder added that both on-chain and market signals indicate “weak liquidity for now,” reinforcing his earlier view that the classic on-chain bull cycle has already ended.
Ju maintains that a sharp bounce toward $100K is possible, but warns that if Bitcoin fails to break above that level, “another lower low becomes likely.”
Yong Ju’s long-term outlook aligns with Luke Gromen, Founder & President of Forest for the Trees. Gromen argues that the U.S. fiscal deficit and falling foreign demand for Treasuries are destabilizing the bond market.
Ju believes Bitcoin and gold should climb once liquidity returns next year.
That said, CoinMarketCap data on Bitcoin shows the market currently split between panicked selling and selective institutional conviction. Author Robert Kiyosaki sold $2.25M in BTC to fund cash-flow businesses. However, the investor stressed that he remains a long-term buyer.
In other news, ETF withdrawals intensified through November, totaling over $3.5 billion. That’s the biggest since. Combined with the Fear & Greed Index at 10 (“extreme fear”) and miner profitability near decade lows, analysts say the setup supports Ju’s expectation of a prolonged corrective phase.
Meanwhile, over 65 crypto firms are pushing the U.S. government for clearer tax rules, as developers advance BIP-360, a three-phase upgrade aimed at securing 25% of Bitcoin from potential quantum threats by 2030.
Bitcoin now sits at the crossroads of macro liquidity pressure, record ETF outflows, regulatory shifts, and long-term network upgrades. Whether institutional dip-buyers can counter accelerating redemptions may determine if Bitcoin stabilizes, or sinks into the deeper pullback Ju warns about.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/expert-view-bitcoin-unlikely-to-record-strong-recovery-over-the-next-3-6-months/
