U.S. scraps October PPI release as shutdown delays leave Fed flying blind

The Trump administration has pulled the plug on the long‑delayed October PPI report just days before the Federal Reserve meets to decide interest rates.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said Monday it will skip the October release completely and roll those numbers into the November report, now set for January 14, according to the agency.

This decision is tied to the wider cleanup from the government shutdown, which knocked multiple federal data releases off schedule.

The PPI does not move markets on its own most months, but it feeds straight into the personal consumption expenditures price index, the inflation gauge the Fed leans on most.

With October erased and November pushed back, officials head into this week’s talks working only with September data, even as inflation remains sticky and job risks grow.

BLS folds missing PPI into January release

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said it will combine the delayed October wholesale‑price figures into the postponed November report in mid‑January as it works through the shutdown backlog.

The agency confirmed this is part of its broader effort to restore the normal flow of federal economic data after weeks of disruption.

The delay lands at a bad moment for the Fed, which is trying to judge inflation with old inputs. The PPI flows into the PCE, the central bank’s preferred inflation measure, and the absence of fresh producer prices makes it harder to read where costs are heading right now.

As officials took their seats for this week’s meeting, September remained the newest inflation baseline on hand.

While inflation data went stale, fresh clues on households came from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Its Survey of Consumer Expectations, published Monday, showed one‑year inflation expectations holding at 3.2% in November.

Expectations for three years and five years both stayed at 3%. At the same time, job fears eased. The perceived chance of losing a job dropped to 13.8%, the lowest point so far this year.

The labor mood also improved in other ways. Participants marked down the odds that unemployment will be higher a year from now. More people said they expect better chances of finding work if they do lose a job.

Yet not all signals were positive. With inflation still high and job security still weaker than last year, more families said their finances took a hit. The share of respondents saying their current financial position is worse than a year ago climbed to 39%, the highest level in two years.

Fed officials are still set to vote on Wednesday at the end of the two‑day meeting. A third straight rate cut is widely expected as the central bank tries to protect the labor market from further erosion. At the same time, several policymakers warned that tariffs could lock in higher prices for longer. One official said tariffs could lead to “long‑lasting price pressure,” a risk they continue to track through inflation‑expectation estimates.

Powell pushes rate cuts as dissent piles up

The expected decision comes as Jerome Powell, whose term as chair ends in May, faces rising resistance inside the central bank. Every rate reduction delivered this year drew at least one dissenting vote, and three officials are again expected to vote against the majority at this final meeting of the year.

The conflict is simple and brutal. Inflation is still too high, and the job market is losing momentum at the same time. The Fed has only one main tool to deal with both. Jerome, long known for holding the committee together, now struggles to balance those forces as unity slips.

Even with deep respect across the committee, the growing split raises questions for whoever takes over next. The next chair will inherit a table of 18 policymakers with sharper divisions than seen in years. While officials agree they want rates to fall toward a level that neither restrains growth nor fuels excess demand, they cannot agree on where that neutral level actually sits. That disagreement is now driving the rise in formal dissent.

The six weeks since the last meeting exposed the rift in public view. Some officials argued for more cuts to support a weakening labor market. Others pushed for a pause as inflation stayed stubborn. As those positions moved back and forth, market odds on a December rate cut swung with each speech.

The balance tipped when two officials closest to Jerome signaled they were ready to back another cut. Their public stance pointed to Jerome’s effort to pull more of the committee toward easing. Throughout his tenure, Jerome has often secured support by trading policy backing for changes in messaging after meetings. The Fed has long relied on consensus, using guidance language to smooth over disputes and keep markets steady.

That tradition is now under strain. This month’s gathering is set to become the fourth straight meeting with at least one dissenting vote. If three objections land again, the Fed will total eight dissents across four meetings, matching the entire count from the previous 47 meetings. That internal friction now unfolds as policymakers debate rates with missing PPI data, delayed inflation inputs, fragile households, and a labor market the Fed says it cannot ignore.

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