Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Stock: Consensus Buy Rating Holds as Analysts Lift Targets

TLDR

• TSMC maintains a consensus Buy rating with over 20% upside to $355.
• Bernstein raises its target to $330 on rising CoWoS demand and AI packaging growth.
• TSMC files lawsuit against former executive over trade secret concerns.
• Analysts forecast strong multi-year revenue growth across 2026 and 2027.
• Long-term AI infrastructure buildout supports mid-40% CAGR in AI revenue.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) trades at $299.11, up 1.49%, as investor sentiment strengthens on rising analyst targets and sustained demand across advanced chip packaging. As of early December, the stock retains a consensus Buy rating, with an over 20% upside to the $355 median one-year price target.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM

Consensus Buy Rating and 20% Upside Outlook

TSMC remains one of the fastest-growing semiconductor names on the market. Analysts cite its leadership in advanced process technologies, consistent execution across its 5nm and 3nm nodes, and deep integration into global AI and mobile supply chains. Forecasts point to strong performance relative to peers, and the stock continues to attract institutional interest due to its scale, foundry dominance, and stable long-term margins.

Research coverage highlights TSMC as a core holding for investors who want exposure to the semiconductor demand cycle and the accelerating buildout of AI computing infrastructure. The company’s expanding pricing power across leading-edge technology nodes helps support revenue projections and preserve profitability despite heavy capital expenditure commitments.

Lawsuit and Trade Secrets Dispute With Former Executive

Operational developments took center stage after TSMC filed a civil lawsuit on November 25, 2025, against former senior vice president Wei-Jen Lo. The company alleges violations of non-compete and confidentiality agreements as well as potential breaches under Taiwan’s Trade Secrets Act. Taiwanese prosecutors searched two of Lo’s residences on November 27 and seized electronic devices as part of an investigation under the National Security Act.

Coverage across major outlets outlined TSMC’s stated concern of a high probability that sensitive process knowledge could be disclosed to Intel, where Lo now works. Intel publicly rejected the allegations and said it sees no merit to the claims. The situation highlights persistent geopolitical and competitive tensions surrounding advanced semiconductor intellectual property.

Bernstein Lifts Price Target on Surging CoWoS Demand

Momentum for TSMC strengthened after Bernstein raised its price target to $330, up from $315 in prior assessments. The firm cited rapid growth in demand for CoWoS (chip-on-wafer-on-substrate) packaging tied to AI accelerators, along with stronger visibility on major projects from companies such as NVIDIA.

Analyst Mark Li projects CoWoS capacity reaching 125,000 wafers per month exiting 2026, while industry-wide capacity will reach roughly 1.25 million units per year. Bernstein argues this level will be just sufficient to meet large-scale accelerator programs scheduled through 2026, leaving little room for excess demand. Expected tailwinds include higher smartphone demand for N2 technology and improved pricing on mature nodes, contributing to TSMC’s forecast of 23% revenue growth in 2026 and 20% in 2027.

Bernstein models EPS growth at a 20% CAGR over 2026 and 2027, projecting only a mild margin dip of around 150 basis points even as capital expenditures remain elevated.

Long-Term AI Buildout and Capex Planning

Long-term projections show a massive buildup in AI data center infrastructure. Bernstein estimates 55 to 60 GW of new global AI capacity will be required between now and 2029 for TSMC to achieve mid-40% CAGR in AI-related revenue. Capex is modeled at $47 billion next year, shifting toward N2 as mobile transitions to that node, which helps reduce the capex-to-revenue ratio over time.

Analysts describe TSMC as a quality compounder with high structural demand and durable technological leadership.

Performance Overview: TSM

TSMC’s trailing returns extend its outperformance. YTD returns stand at 50.87%, outpacing the 22.87% benchmark. The one-year return of 49.38% exceeds the index’s 22.03%, three-year performance surged 296.68%, while five-year gains reached 206.20%, both well ahead of the benchmark.

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