Tesla investors got something to think about this week. Bloomberg dropped news that SpaceX might go public in 2026.
Tesla, Inc., TSLA
The potential IPO could raise up to $30 billion. SpaceX is already worth about $400 billion as a private company.
That makes it the most valuable aerospace company on the planet. The company handles more than half of all orbital launches worldwide.
SpaceX also runs Starlink, its satellite internet service. The business has over 8 million subscribers.
Reports suggest the IPO could value SpaceX at $1.5 trillion. Some analysts think it could hit $2 trillion once trading starts.
Elon Musk downplayed the urgency for an IPO earlier. He noted SpaceX is already cash-flow positive. The company doesn’t need to sell stock to raise money.
But that hasn’t stopped speculation about what this means for Tesla.
Wedbush analyst Dan Ives made a bold prediction. He said he would be shocked if Tesla doesn’t invest in SpaceX during the IPO.
Ives rates Tesla stock as a Buy with a $600 price target. He believes Tesla’s AI work will drive future earnings growth.
Tesla shareholders recently voted on a proposal. The vote would allow Tesla to invest in Musk’s AI company xAI. The vote was nonbinding and many shareholders abstained.
An investment in SpaceX could be a step toward combining Musk’s companies. He runs Tesla, SpaceX, xAI, The Boring Company, and X.
The idea of merging these businesses under one umbrella keeps coming up. Nothing is set in stone yet.
EchoStar owns SpaceX stock worth roughly $11 billion. The satellite company’s shares jumped 6% on Tuesday after the Bloomberg report.
Shares rose another 11.2% on Wednesday to $103.98. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones added 0.7% and 1.1% for comparison.
Other space companies also caught a lift. Rocket Lab USA rose 7.7% on Wednesday. Firefly Aerospace climbed 9.5%.
Dan Hanson from Neuberger Berman called SpaceX a rare opportunity. His Quality Equity Fund holds about 5% in unlisted SpaceX shares.
He said SpaceX has both strong current operations and future potential. The launch business is established and Starlink generates real revenue.
ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood values SpaceX at $2.5 trillion by 2030. She projects the company could hit $200 billion in sales by then. Almost all revenue would come from Starlink and Starshield communications systems.
Historical data offers a reality check though. Between 1980 and 2023, companies with high IPO valuations typically lost half their value within three years. Only seven out of 45 high-value IPOs traded higher after three years.
SpaceX aims to raise more than $25 billion in an IPO that could come as early as June. The company did not respond to requests for comment.
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