Analyst Forecasts 2026 Bottom Before $150K Bull Run

Is Bitcoin gearing up for its most dramatic cycle yet? A new Bitcoin price prediction from a prominent on-chain analyst suggests the flagship cryptocurrency could see a staggering rally to $150,000, but not before navigating a crucial shakeout period. This forecast hinges on complex market data and holder behavior, offering a roadmap for the volatile years ahead. Let’s break down the key insights and what they mean for your portfolio.

What is the Core Bitcoin Price Prediction?

On-chain analyst Murphy presents a compelling timeline. He anticipates Bitcoin will find its ultimate cycle bottom in 2026. Following this low, the stage is set for a powerful bull market capable of propelling the price to a target of $150,000. This Bitcoin price prediction isn’t just a random guess; it’s built on analyzing where coins are held and the psychology of different investor groups.

Why is the $80K-$90K Zone So Critical?

The analysis identifies a massive support wall between $80,000 and $90,000. This zone represents a key battleground between fear and conviction. Here’s the data that makes this area so significant:

• Strong Support: Approximately 7.46 million BTC are held profitably below $80,000, creating a base of investors less likely to sell in panic.
• Overhead Supply: Conversely, about 6.17 million BTC are held at a loss above $90,000. If the price rises, these coins could become sell-side pressure as holders break even.
• The Absorption Test: The bullish case depends on new buying demand absorbing the 1.87 million BTC in this critical range without triggering massive sell-offs.

Who is Selling and What Does it Mean?

A major liquidation event in October cleared out many weak hands. The current selling pressure now comes primarily from Long-Term Holders (LTHs)—investors who have held Bitcoin for over 155 days. These profitable players are distributing their coins, likely influenced by the classic four-year cycle theory and broader economic uncertainty.

However, there’s a silver lining. The analyst notes that panic selling above $110,000 has largely subsided. More importantly, despite this sustained selling from LTHs, Bitcoin has avoided the catastrophic 50% crashes seen in previous cycles. This resilience points to exceptionally strong underlying demand, a bullish signal often overlooked in short-term price action.

How Does This Lead to a $150K Bitcoin Price Prediction?

The path to $150,000 is a process of elimination and accumulation. The market is currently in what Murphy calls a “strong shakeout period.” This phase is designed to transfer coins from impatient or uncertain hands to steadfast believers. Once this distribution concludes and the selling pressure from LTHs is exhausted, the foundation for the next leg up will be solid.

The projected inflection point in 2026 is when this cycle resets. With weaker sellers flushed out and a new wave of accumulation complete, the reduced available supply, met with increasing demand, could create the explosive conditions needed to fulfill the ambitious Bitcoin price prediction of $150,000.

Conclusion: Patience is the Ultimate Strategy

This analysis paints a picture of a market in transition. The road to new all-time highs requires navigating significant volatility and a final capitulation phase. For investors, the key takeaway is the importance of a long-term perspective. The data suggests that while 2025 may be turbulent, strategic accumulation during weakness could position portfolios exceptionally well for the potential bull run that follows the 2026 low. This Bitcoin price prediction underscores that in cryptocurrency, timing and patience are often more valuable than timing the market perfectly.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1: What is the main reason for predicting a bottom in 2026?
A1: The prediction is based on the four-year Bitcoin cycle theory and on-chain data showing Long-Term Holders are still distributing their coins. The analyst believes this selling pressure needs more time to be fully absorbed by the market.

Q2: Why hasn’t Bitcoin crashed 50% like in past cycles despite the selling?
A2: The analyst points to exceptionally strong underlying demand from new buyers. This consistent demand is absorbing the sell-side pressure from LTHs, preventing the deep, panic-driven crashes seen historically.

Q3: What happens if Bitcoin breaks below the $80,000 support zone?
A3: A sustained break below $80,000 could invalidate the current support thesis and potentially lead to a deeper and faster search for a bottom, as it would trigger stop-losses and fear selling from the profitable cohort holding below that level.

Q4: Is the $150,000 target guaranteed if we bottom in 2026?
A4: No price target is guaranteed. The $150,000 figure is a projection based on historical cycle patterns and supply/demand dynamics. It requires favorable macroeconomic conditions and continued adoption to materialize.

Q5: What should an investor do based on this analysis?
A5: The analysis suggests a strategy of patience and potential dollar-cost averaging during periods of weakness, with a focus on the long-term horizon beyond 2026, rather than attempting to trade short-term volatility.

Did this deep dive into on-chain analysis and long-term Bitcoin price prediction help you? If you found these insights valuable, share this article with your network on Twitter or LinkedIn to spark a discussion about Bitcoin’s future trajectory!

To learn more about the latest Bitcoin trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Bitcoin institutional adoption and regulatory shifts.