XRP Price in 2026 Could Rise on Locked Supply, Not Network Usage

TLDR

• Experts believe XRP price in 2026 will depend more on supply lockups than transaction volume.
• Fast settlement on the XRP Ledger reduces the need for large idle XRP holdings.
• DeFi projects like mXRP are targeting up to $10 billion worth of locked XRP.
• The Flare Network aims to lock 5 billion XRP by the middle of 2026.
• XRP-focused ETFs have already accumulated over 500 million XRP.

The ongoing debate within the XRP community has intensified as experts discuss what could influence XRP price in 2026, with recent analysis shifting focus away from transaction volumes and toward factors affecting available supply, lockups, and institutional holdings that reduce circulating tokens but not necessarily trading activity.

Fast Settlement Limits XRP Price Impact

Many XRP holders argue that higher transaction volume on the XRP Ledger will raise XRP price over time. However, analysts highlight that XRP settles transactions in seconds, reducing the need for tokens to stay idle.

This quick settlement limits the impact of transaction activity on the amount of XRP held in circulation. As a result, even with rising usage, there may be limited upward pressure on XRP price based on volume alone.

“Money moves too quickly through the XRPL for volume to drive long-term price,” one analyst said. Thus, the argument linking daily usage to market value is now facing increased scrutiny from industry observers.

Supply Lockup Gains Attention Among Analysts

According to All Things XRP, locked XRP now plays a larger role in shaping market value in 2026 projections. Their analysis points to various initiatives that reduce available supply, potentially influencing XRP price dynamics.

For instance, mXRP DeFi projects are expected to lock up $10 billion worth of XRP in the coming cycle. In parallel, the Flare Network targets a lockup of 5 billion XRP by mid-2026, affecting the total liquid supply.

ETFs focused on XRP have already secured over 500 million tokens, while exchange reserves continue declining. These movements shift attention toward the supply-side equation, raising the case for a possible supply-driven price change.

“XRP is getting locked in systems that don’t trade frequently,” All Things XRP stated in their recent breakdown. This behavior effectively removes XRP from daily trading, even if demand remains unchanged or increases slightly.

Analysts Question Validity of Supply Shock Theory

While proponents push the supply shock thesis, critics argue exchange reserves still contain large volumes of XRP. Recent data shows 15.4 billion XRP remain on 26 trading platforms, led by Upbit, Binance, and Bithumb.

Upbit alone holds 6.25 billion XRP, while Binance follows with 2.52 billion and Bithumb with 1.82 billion. These figures challenge claims that XRP is growing scarce across major exchange networks.

Legal expert Bill Morgan dismissed the idea of a looming supply shock, citing the abundance of circulating tokens. He noted, “Exchange-held XRP equals 15% of total supply and 25% of circulating supply, far from scarce.”

Morgan also challenged the impact of ETFs, which together hold less than 1% of the total XRP supply today. He concluded the market has not met the conditions required for a supply-driven price surge.

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