Important news from last night and this morning (January 3-January 4)

Trump denies the possibility of the Venezuelan opposition seizing power and supports the vice president.

Following the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, Vice President Rodriguez stated that Maduro is the only legitimate president of the country. Trump had previously claimed that Rodriguez would work with Washington to "make Venezuela great again." While the Venezuelan opposition expressed jubilation over Maduro's capture by US forces, Trump dismissed the possibility of an opposition takeover, calling opposition leaders "immature" and unprepared for power. This suggests his decision to give Rodriguez and other Maduro supporters a chance to start afresh, rather than completely overthrow the current regime. Matthew Kronig, vice president and senior director of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council, stated, "Trump is essentially using rewards and punishments to control the vice president and his inner circle to achieve the results the US desires. We'll see if it works."

SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic plan to launch their IPOs in 2026, potentially marking one of the most significant IPO waves in history.

According to a recent Financial Times report, three of the largest unlisted U.S. tech giants—SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—are preparing for IPOs in 2026, with expected fundraising reaching tens of billions of dollars. OpenAI's valuation may reach $750 billion, SpaceX's secondary market valuation has already reached $800 billion, and Anthropic is seeking financing with a valuation exceeding $300 billion. If all three go public, it will surpass the total size of all U.S. IPOs in 2025, potentially bringing unprecedented returns to investment banks and venture capitalists.

Crypto M&A and IPOs surged in 2025, and industry insiders predict the boom will continue into 2026.

According to The Block, M&A and IPO activity in the crypto sector saw a significant increase in 2025, with 265 M&A deals completed, totaling $8.6 billion, and IPOs raising $14.6 billion, both significantly exceeding 2024 levels. Benefiting from regulatory clarity and a rebound in institutional participation, the market expects this trend to continue in 2026, with transactions focusing on key areas such as compliance licenses, payment infrastructure, stablecoins, and enterprise-grade tools. Investors are also optimistic about the rise of alternative pathways such as SPACs and RTOs.

US spot crypto ETFs have surpassed $2 trillion in cumulative trading volume, doubling in just half the time.

According to The Block, the cumulative trading volume of US spot crypto ETFs surpassed $2 trillion on January 2nd, taking only eight months—half the time it took to reach $1 trillion in May 2025. On January 2nd, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded a combined net inflow of $646 million, with BlackRock's IBIT holding approximately 70% market share. Spot ETFs now cover more assets such as SOL and XRP, with XRP-related products attracting $1.2 billion since their launch last November.

US lawmakers are considering legislation to ban officials from using prediction markets for "insider trading."

According to The Block, U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres plans to introduce the "Public Integrity Act for Financial Prediction Markets of 2026," which would prohibit federal officials from participating in political prediction market trading when they have access to material, non-public information. This proposal stems from a Polymarket account that bet on Maduro's downfall before the U.S. military raid and subsequent arrest, turning a mere $32,500 into over $400,000, raising concerns about insider trading. The total trading volume in prediction markets is projected to reach $44 billion by 2025.

Trump: Air, land, and sea forces were used in the military operation against Venezuela.

US President Trump held a press conference regarding the military action against Venezuela. Trump stated that the US military raided a "heavily guarded military fortress in downtown Caracas" and captured Maduro. This was one of the most shocking, effective, and powerful demonstrations of US military strength and capability. Air, land, and sea forces were used in the operation in Venezuela. All Venezuelan military forces have been completely suppressed. President Trump stated that we will continue to govern Venezuela until we are able to complete a safe, proper, and prudent transfer of power. President Trump stated that if necessary, we are prepared to launch a second strike. We once thought a second wave of action was necessary, but now that may not be the case. Trump stated that, as everyone knows, Venezuela's oil industry has been severely damaged and has been in a state of complete collapse for a long time. Their production is far below what it should be and far below potential capacity. We will let America's largest oil company—the world's largest company—into [Venezuela], invest billions of dollars, repair the severely damaged oil infrastructure, and start creating wealth for the country.

Bitmine has added over 49,000 ETH to its staked portfolio, bringing the total staked amount to over 590,000 ETH.

According to Onchain Lens, Bitmine has newly staked 49,088 ETH, equivalent to approximately $152.7 million at the current market value. Its total staked amount has reached 593,152 ETH, with a market value of approximately $1.85 billion.

Yi Lihua: Stick to trend investing; wins or losses are determined by the market.

Liquid Capital founder Yi Lihua responded on the X platform to the claim of recovering his losses on 626,574 ETH, stating: "Adhering to trend investing has a very simple logic: buy when you're bullish on a bull market, sell when you're bearish on a bear market, be greedy when others are fearful. You can never buy at the lowest point or sell at the highest point. We haven't deliberately been high-profile or low-profile; we're simply sharing our understanding and operations. There's no game involved; wins or losses are determined by the market. At the same time, we gain personal growth, witness the journey, and make friends along the way."

Yi Lihua's averaging-down strategy worked; 626,574 ETH have already broken even.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi, Yi Lihua's 626,574 ETH have recovered their initial investment, proving that his averaging down strategy was effective. On December 29th, the day of the price drop, he added 46,036.72 ETH, reducing the average cost of his on-chain holdings to approximately $3,105.5. He has now just recovered the $110 million unrealized loss and reached the break-even point.

Digital RMB tops Baidu's trending searches: Interest-bearing on current account balances, fundamentally different from WeChat and Alipay wallets.

The topic "The difference between digital RMB and WeChat Pay/Alipay" topped the Baidu hot search list. According to Baidu's hot search analysis, starting from January 1st, the balance of digital RMB wallets will accrue interest at the rate of demand deposits. The difference between digital RMB and WeChat Pay/Alipay can be explained as follows: digital RMB is money, which is equivalent to paying merchants directly with a handful of electronic money; WeChat Pay and Alipay are wallets, where money is taken from the wallet to pay merchants.

Analysis: Bitcoin rebounds to $90,000, but derivatives and spot ETF data show market sentiment remains cautious.

According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin prices rose above $90,000 today, reaching a near three-week high. Data shows that despite the price rebound, demand for leveraged long positions in Bitcoin remained stable, with Bitcoin futures basis rates below the neutral threshold and a current annualized premium of 4%. Furthermore, fund flows in derivatives and spot ETFs indicate that traders remain cautious, suggesting limited market confidence in further price increases. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows of over $900 million since December 15th, while Bitcoin put options traded at a premium on Saturday, indicating increased demand from professional traders for downside protection.

James Wynn opens a long position in PEPE with 10x leverage.

According to Onchain Lens monitoring, James Wynn has opened a 10x leveraged long position in PEPE as the price of PEPE rises.

Scam Sniffer: Crypto-phishing losses fell by 83% in 2025, but risks still increased significantly in active market conditions.

According to a report by Cointelegraph, Web3 security platform Scam Sniffer reported a significant decrease in cryptocurrency phishing attacks related to wallet drainers in 2025, with total losses falling to $83.85 million, an 83% decrease from nearly $494 million in 2024. Despite the substantial drop in losses, the report warns that phishing activity hasn't disappeared, but attackers are shifting to low-risk, high-frequency strategies, with losses closely correlated with market cycles, increasing during periods of high on-chain activity and decreasing during market downturns. The third quarter of 2025 coincided with Ethereum's (ETH) strongest annual rally, with phishing losses reaching $31 million, accounting for nearly 29% of the year's total. The report notes, "When the market is active, overall user activity increases, and the proportion of victims also rises—the probability of phishing attacks is positively correlated with user activity." Monthly losses ranged from $2.04 million in December, the calmest month, to $12.17 million in August, the most active month.

A whale with a 100% success rate in PEPE swing trading has narrowed its unrealized losses to $14.24 million, but needs to rise another 281% to break even.

According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi, a whale with a 100% success rate in PEPE trading has accumulated 13,100 PEPE tokens since establishing a position in June 2024, with an average cost of $0.00001683. During this period, the price dropped to a low of $0.00000279 (on October 11th), resulting in a floating loss of $18.43 million, or 83.4% of the single token's value. The floating loss has now narrowed to $14.24 million, meaning PEPE would need to rise by another 281% to break even.

Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: The situation in Venezuela has deteriorated sharply; the December non-farm payroll report is the most anticipated.

The world remains turbulent as the new year begins. The tranquility of the Caribbean has been shattered as the United States launched a military strike against Venezuela and reportedly arrested President Maduro. A series of US economic data releases are also poised to trigger market volatility, with the December non-farm payroll report being the most closely watched – the first normal monthly report since the end of last year's record-breaking government shutdown. Here are the key events the market will be focusing on this week: Monday 1:30 AM, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member, speaks at the American Economic Association; Tuesday 9:00 PM, Richmond Fed President Barkin, a 2027 FOMC voting member, speaks; Tuesday TBD, the 2026 Consumer Electronics Show (CES), the "Tech Spring Festival," will be held in Las Vegas from January 6-9; Wednesday 9:15 PM, US December ADP Employment Change; Thursday 8:30 PM, US December Challenger Job Cuts; Thursday 9:30 PM, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 3, October Trade Balance; Friday 12:00 AM, US December New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations; Friday 9:30 PM, US December Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate, US October Housing Starts (Annualized) and Building Permits; At 23:00 on Friday, Neel Kashkari, a 2026 FOMC voting member and president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, will deliver a welcome address and participate in informal talks at an online conference hosted by the bank; at 23:00 on Friday, the preliminary readings of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January and the preliminary readings of the one-year inflation rate expectations will be released.

Ethereum treasury company Quantum Solutions disclosed that its ETH holdings have increased to approximately 5,418.

Quantum Solutions, a Japanese-listed Ethereum treasury company backed by Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood, officially disclosed that after purchasing 187.53 ETH, the company now holds a total of 5418.32 ETH, with an average purchase price of $3943 and a total purchase cost of $20.58 million. Its ETH holdings rank 15th among listed Ethereum treasury companies. In addition, the company also holds 11.6 BTC.