Deutsche Bank’s stock has finally traded above its book value for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. On Monday, shares jumped to €33.95 in early Frankfurt trading, crossing the most recent book value of €33.66. By late morning, it slipped slightly to €33.77, but the price remained above that threshold.
Deutsche has been trading below book since early 2008. That’s 18 years stuck under its asset value, as legal fights, restructuring failures, and a decade of missed earnings weighed down Germany’s biggest bank.
The price-to-book ratio (only cared for by investors who still bother with bank stocks) has now broken even. That’s a first since the global economy started cracking in 2008.
Deutsche is facing legal drama, dead assets, and investor flight
Back in March 2020, Deutsche’s stock was down to €4.88, or just 0.19 times book value. Nobody believed in the recovery plan, as the economy was frozen by COVID-19, and Deutsche was still stuck with losses from the ECB’s negative rates, overdue layoffs, and endless restructuring bills.
Fast forward to now, and Deutsche has doubled over the past year, in what is now a part of a three-year run across the European banking sector.
But Deutsche’s story has been more than just luck. It shut down its equities trading unit, dropped loss-heavy business lines, and leaned into corporate banking and fixed-income trading. And it finally started plugging the legal holes, with cases tied to mis-sold mortgage-backed securities being closed.
Still, the rally hasn’t brought it back to 2008 levels. Even after this year’s surge, the stock is only halfway to where it stood before the crash. Market cap is now €65 billion, compared to €35 billion back then.
That growth is mostly from €33 billion in fresh equity raised over the years, the biggest chunk coming in 2017, when it needed to patch the balance sheet after fines and the expensive takeover of Postbank.
That deal haunts the bank. Postbank has been a problem from day one. The retail business has dragged, although some profit has returned after branch closures and layoffs.
Deutsche’s CEO, Christian Sewing, said last year, “When I still have the chance to get significantly better through my own effort, I don’t want to let anything hold me back from that.” No big deals on the table. He wants the bank to fix itself.
Deutsche’s returns are still behind rivals, and skepticism are growing inside
Back in October, the bank posted its strongest nine-month profit since 2007. Analysts now say Deutsche will hit a 10% return on tangible equity for 2025, its stated target. But it still trails behind others. The goal is 13% by 2028, while peers are aiming as high as 22%. The market isn’t sold.
Andreas Thomae, strategist at Deka, one of the bank’s top 20 shareholders, isn’t celebrating. “The recent share price gains simply reflect the move from negligible earnings to average profitability,” he said. He also added that Deutsche “will never reach the profitability levels of BBVA or Santander,” because its investment bank eats up too much capital.
Commerzbank, Deutsche’s German rival, saw its price-to-book ratio rise from 0.13 in 2020 to over 1.4 in 2025, helped by a potential acquisition bid from UniCredit. Meanwhile, Deutsche still lags on total returns, with its 10-year return trailing the Stoxx600 Banks index, BNP Paribas, and UniCredit.
Over at DWS, its asset manager, things aren’t great either. Alternative investments aren’t pulling in profits. Low-fee passive products like ETFs are bringing in cash, but they’re not lifting margins. And while DWS is hunting for acquisitions, nothing’s happened yet.
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Source: https://www.cryptopolitan.com/deutsche-breaks-18-year-valuation-discount/
