Precious metals surge, stumble, then rebound – Commerzbank

Precious metal prices experienced spectacular rises in the final days of the year, followed in some cases by sharp setbacks. On Boxing Day, the price of Gold reached a new record high of $4,550 per troy ounce, Commerzbank’s commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Gold and Silver hit records amid holiday volatility

“The price of Silver rose even more sharply during the holiday season, also reaching a record level of $84 per troy ounce in the early hours of December 29. The same applies to the price of Platinum, which reached $2,490 per troy ounce. Palladium reached a three-year high of just under $2,000 per troy ounce. The price increases were likely boosted by thin liquidity due to the holidays. In the case of Silver, concerns about physical shortages, low inventories in China, falling inventories on the COMEX, and China’s export restrictions, which came into force at the beginning of 2026, added to the momentum.”

“However, prices fell back from these levels by the end of the year. The price of Silver even fell by more than USD 10 during trading on December 29, recording its sharpest daily percentage loss in more than five years. Due to the high volatility, CME, as the owner of COMEX, had further raised the margin requirements for Silver futures contracts, which resulted in margin calls and is likely to have triggered forced selling by investors. The Shanghai Futures Exchange had already raised margin requirements beforehand. At the end of the year, all precious metals registered historic price increases. Gold rose by 64.6% year-on-year, Silver by as much as 148%, in each case the strongest annual increase since 1979. Platinum rose by 127% last year, the strongest rise since trading began in 1987. The price of Palladium rose by 77.5%, the strongest gain in 15 years.”

“At the start of the new year, precious metal prices are rising again and approaching the highs recorded at the end of 2025. Gold rose by almost 3% yesterday to $4,450 per troy ounce, while Silver climbed by a good 5% to $76.6 per troy ounce. Today, both prices continue to rise. The US military intervention in Venezuela last weekend is providing tailwinds, leading to stronger demand for safe havens. In addition, the ISM index for the manufacturing sector in the US disappointed in December, falling to a 14-month low. This put pressure on the US dollar and boosted expectations of Fed interest rate cuts, which means tailwinds for non-interest-bearing investments such as Gold and Silver.”