Bitcoin Stuck Below Resistance as Market Waits

• Supply redistribution and a low leverage point to consolidation, not a leverage-driven rally.
• BTC remains capped below $98K–$105K, with strong structural support at $80K–$82K.
• Whale accumulation alongside retail profit-taking signals short-term stabilization risk.

Bitcoin entered the opening days of 2026 trading near $94,000, as multiple on-chain and market structure indicators suggested a period of consolidation rather than directional expansion. Data shared by Checkonchain highlighted a large redistribution of supply beneath the surface, even as current prices remained range-bound.

According to Checkonchain, Bitcoin’s top-heavy supply concentration has declined from 67% to 47%, indicating that holdings previously grouped among large entities have become more evenly distributed. 

At the same time, realized profit-taking activity has decreased, indicating reduced sell pressure from holders who accumulated at lower levels. Futures markets have also reflected a short squeeze, while aggregate leverage across derivatives venues has remained comparatively low, limiting systemic liquidation risk.

Technical Structure Defines Near-Term Boundaries

Chart data referenced in the analysis shows Bitcoin below a defined resistance band between $98,000 and $105,000. This zone aligns with the short-term holder cost basis and the 200-day moving average, both of which have historically acted as inflection points during trend transitions.

On the downside, a primary support region has formed between $80,000 and $82,000, where the market trend connects with ETF-linked demand. This area has absorbed recent pullbacks, indicating ongoing institutional participation during periods of weakness. A deeper downside reference is marked near $56,000, corresponding with the realized price and the 200-week moving average, levels historically associated with cyclical market lows.

Whale Accumulation and Retail Behavior

Separate data from Santiment shows that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC accumulated 56,227 BTC starting December 17, a period that coincided with Bitcoin’s recent local bottom. Over the past 24 hours, Santiment reported that wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC have shifted toward profit-taking behavior. Historically, this combination has aligned with periods of market stabilization or short-term upside continuation.

In addition, market commentary from Ted Pillows referenced Bitcoin’s attempt to reclaim the 2025 yearly open. The chart levels indicate consolidation around $93,000–$94,000, with higher resistance near $102,000, and downside risk extending to $90,000–$91,000 if the current support level fails.

Related: Bitcoin Price in 2026: What Analysts and Data Are Saying