Polymarket: Odds of Strategy (MicroStrategy) MSCI Delisting Drop to 11%

Prediction market Polymarket shows the odds of Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) being delisted from MSCI by March 31 have fallen sharply to 11%, signaling growing confidence the company will remain in the index.

What Changed

• Current odds: 11% chance of MSCI delisting by March 31
• Trend: Significant decline from prior levels
• Signal: Market participants see reduced near‑term index risk

This suggests improving sentiment around Strategy’s eligibility and stability.

Why This Matters

MSCI inclusion is important because it:

• Drives passive fund and ETF ownership
• Enhances liquidity and institutional visibility
• Reduces forced selling risk from index‑tracking funds

Lower delisting odds ease a major overhang for the stock.

What’s Likely Driving the Shift

• Strategy’s continued compliance with index criteria
• Greater comfort with its Bitcoin‑centric treasury strategy
• Improved understanding that BTC volatility alone doesn’t mandate delisting

As Bitcoin stabilizes, index risk perceptions tend to fall.

Important Caveats

• Polymarket reflects crowd probabilities, not guarantees
• MSCI decisions depend on methodology and reviews, not market odds
• Conditions can change quickly with earnings or market stress

Bottom Line

With Polymarket now pricing only an 11% chance of Strategy being delisted from MSCI by March 31, the perceived risk has dropped materially. For investors, that removes a key uncertainty—though final decisions rest with MSCI, not prediction markets.