Expert: Bitcoin Isn’t Stuck, It’s Compressed – Why $100,000 Could Break Soon

Bitcoin analyst explains why $100K isn’t permanent resistance. Hedging mechanics are set to expire soon, potentially unlocking price movement.

Bitcoin’s stall below $100,000 might not signal weakness. According to analyst David (@david_eng_mba), the resistance is temporary.

The current price action stems from options mechanics, not fundamental barriers. David shared his analysis on X, breaking down the mathematical forces at play.

Dealer Hedging Creates Temporary Ceiling

Between $94,000 and $98,000, dealer hedging amplifies price swings. However, at $100,000, the same hedging suppresses movement.

David describes this as a “launch zone below $100k” with “one gate at $100k.” The structure doesn’t represent permanent resistance above that level.

At press time, Bitcoin trades at $90,219, down 2.02% in the last 24 hours according to CoinGecko. Meanwhile, trading volume sits at $48.5 billion over the same period.

The hedging structure operates on a timeline. David outlined specific dates when the pressure decreases. On January 16, roughly 13% of the gamma rolls off. By January 30, approximately 38% disappears.

In early February, about 50% of today’s gamma vanishes. David emphasizes that “a wall with a calendar isn’t structural.”

The analyst calls this resistance “rented,” not permanent. As expirations approach, the suppression weakens.

ETF Inflows Continue Despite Price Pin

Real demand accumulates beneath the surface. ETF inflows average $1.2 billion weekly and continue accelerating.

Funding rates hover around 5% APR, indicating minimal retail leverage. David notes that the spot price sits at $91,000 versus a power-law trend value near $120,000.

This represents roughly a 24% discount. The analyst argues that “real buyers are accumulating into the pin.”

Why Hedgers Can’t Maintain Control

David addresses why rolling options can’t sustain suppression indefinitely. 

Each roll costs money through spreads, carry, and volatility risk. Rolling also destroys concentration. The hedge loses effectiveness when spread across time.

Time decay erodes the position continuously. Even if the price stagnates, the hedge weakens naturally.

When hedgers roll positions higher, the ceiling rises. David argues that this signals the strategy already fails. Most importantly, demand persists while hedges expire. 

“Time always wins,” the analyst states.

Related Reading: Did Morgan Stanley Crash Bitcoin to Launch Their ETF? The Timeline

Market Misreads Absorption As Absence

David suggests the market misinterprets current conditions. 

No breakout doesn’t mean no demand exists. Instead, hedging absorbs demand away from the spot price. Volatility hasn’t disappeared; it’s accumulating.

The analyst predicts resolution won’t come from news catalysts. 

Rather, quiet hedge failure will trigger movement. “First, nothing happens. Then it looks wrong. Then it moves faster than expected,” David wrote.

His graph illustrates how price breaks free when hedge strength declines. From 100% strength at $91,300, the model shows hedge power dropping sharply in late January.

The structure falls from 81% to 43% during that period. Bitcoin’s seven-day performance shows a 3.12% gain despite a recent pullback.

David concludes that Bitcoin isn’t trapped. The temporary lease on resistance simply hasn’t expired yet.

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