Do Kwon Trial Looms As LUNC Tests Rising Trendline After 5.33B Binance Burn

• Terra Classic consolidates at $0.00004348 as January 26 Do Kwon trial approaches, with potential 130-year sentence creating uncertainty.
• Binance burned 5.33 billion LUNC on January 1, triggering 20% spike to $0.000045, but gains have eroded as volume collapsed 86%.
• Price holds rising trendline support near $0.000042, but faces Supertrend resistance at $0.00004837 with massive 5.47 trillion supply limiting upside.

Terra Classic price today trades near $0.00004348 as the cryptocurrency tests a rising trendline that has supported price since late 2025 lows. The consolidation occurs ahead of founder Do Kwon’s January 26 criminal trial, which could result in a 130-year prison sentence and create months of volatility for the token still recovering from its catastrophic 2022 collapse.

Binance Burn Surge Fades As Volume Collapses

Binance executed its largest monthly LUNC burn on January 1, destroying 5.33 billion tokens in a single transaction. The event triggered a 20% surge to $0.000045 within 24 hours as trading volume exploded 620% to $110 million.

However, the rally proved unsustainable. Price has declined 3.5% from the spike high, while volume collapsed 86% to just $14.89 million. The erosion shows the burn momentum failed to attract sustained buying pressure despite being the largest single Binance burn in LUNC history.

Binance has now burned over 68.39 billion LUNC since the program began, but the impact remains diluted by the massive 5.47 trillion token supply. At current burn rates of 5.33 billion per month, it would take over 85 years to burn the entire circulating supply, creating a mathematical ceiling on price appreciation without reverse splits or dramatically accelerated burns.

Do Kwon Trial Creates Binary Risk Event

U.S. District Judge Paul Engelmayer set Do Kwon’s criminal fraud trial to begin January 26 in the Southern District of New York. The trial involves nine felony counts including securities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering conspiracy stemming from Terra’s $40 billion collapse in May 2022.

Prosecutors stated potential victims could exceed one million people. The case involves 6 terabytes of evidence requiring translation and decryption, with the trial expected to last 4 to 8 weeks.

The trial creates a binary risk event. A conviction reinforces LUNC as tainted by fraud and deters institutional interest. Legal closure could remove long-term overhang if markets view the case as separated from the community-driven recovery effort. However, months of negative headlines appear likely regardless of outcome.

Rising Trendline Tests Support As EMAs Compress

LUNC Price Dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The daily chart shows LUNC holding a rising trendline that has guided price higher since testing lows near $0.000025 in late 2025. The trendline sits just below current price near $0.000042, marking critical support that must hold to keep the structure intact.

The Parabolic SAR reads $0.00004014, providing a floor below the trendline. However, the Supertrend indicator at $0.00004837 sits well above price, indicating bearish momentum on higher timeframes. Price needs to reclaim this level to shift structure from bearish to neutral.

Key resistance sits at $0.000055 to $0.000060, a zone that has capped rallies multiple times since the January 1 spike. Breaking this barrier would open a path toward $0.000065, though the supply overhang limits realistic upside targets.

Short Term Consolidation Shows EMA Convergence

LUNC 2H Chart (Source: TradingView)

The 2-hour chart shows LUNC consolidating in a tight range as major EMAs converge between $0.00004258 and $0.00004371. Price is trading near the middle of this cluster, showing neither bulls nor bears have control.

The Bollinger Bands show compression, typically preceding directional moves. The middle band sits at $0.00004477, acting as immediate resistance. Price needs to break above this level with volume to confirm buyers are stepping in rather than just providing relief bounces.

The EMA convergence creates a coiled spring effect. A break above $0.00004477 would flip short-term momentum bullish and target $0.000048, while losing $0.000042 exposes the trendline and Parabolic SAR support.

Market Module And USTC Re-Peg Add Fundamental Risk

The Terra Classic community is finalizing governance proposals to reactivate the Market Module, which enables LUNC/USTC arbitrage mechanisms. Separately, plans to re-peg USTC stablecoin from its current $0.02 level back to $1.00 are under discussion.

The USTC re-peg represents extreme risk given the algorithmic stablecoin caused the original $40 billion collapse. Reactivating the same mint-burn mechanism that failed catastrophically could trigger another death spiral if adoption proves insufficient to maintain the peg.

Outlook: Will Terra Classic Go Up?

The setup hinges on the Do Kwon trial outcome and whether the rising trendline holds. If LUNC defends $0.000042 and breaks above Supertrend resistance at $0.00004837, the structure shifts bullish. That would target $0.000055 initially, with further upside toward $0.000065 if trial developments prove neutral or positive.

If price loses $0.000042 and breaks the rising trendline ahead of the January 26 trial, the pattern completes bearishly. That exposes Parabolic SAR support at $0.00004014, with deeper downside toward $0.000038 if negative trial headlines accelerate selling.

Holding $0.000042 keeps the rally alive. Losing it confirms distribution ahead of the trial.