Oil rises on Iran unrest and Russia supply risks – ING

After a strong end to last week, the Oil market has continued to strengthen in early-morning trading today as protests in Iran escalate, raising concerns about supply. The Iranian government warned both the US and Israel not to intervene amid the ongoing unrest. Iran is the fourth-largest OPEC member, producing around 3.2m b/d of Crude Oil. So, this leaves a fair amount of supply risk hanging over the market, ING’s commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

Geopolitical tensions boost Crude prices

“Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to target Russian energy infrastructure. Over the weekend, forces targeting three platforms owned by LukOil in the Caspian Sea. Ukraine has been targeting all parts of the Russian Oil supply chain – from upstream infrastructure to pipelines to ports to refineries. Russian supply faces risks both from these ongoing attacks and the US appearing to move a step closer towards tougher sanctions on Russian energy. Senator Lindsey Graham said that President Trump “greenlit” the bill he’s worked on along with other lawmakers. It would place tariffs and secondary sanctions on countries importing Russian energy. This opens the path for the bill to move to Congress. However, with the White House favouring flexibility on Russia sanctions amid negotiations, it’s unclear the legislation would pass.”

“ExxonMobil’s CEO threw cold water on any idea of large investment in the Venezuelan Oil industry, calling the country ‘uninvestable’ without significant change. Other producers have discussed the potential to boost Venezuelan Oil output over the next several years. It may be difficult to see Oil companies that previously had assets expropriated by the Venezuelan government re-enter without receiving the compensation they were awarded in international courts. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that further sanctions against Venezuela may be lifted as early as this week to facilitate Oil sales.”

“The latest positioning data shows that speculators reduced their net long in ICE Brent by 3,219 lots over the last reporting week to 122,965 lots as of last Tuesday. The market saw an increase in both gross long and gross short, highlighting uncertainty about the implications of events in Venezuela.”