Intel (INTC) Stock: What to Expect From Thursday’s Earnings?

TLDR

• Intel delivers Q4 2025 earnings January 22 with consensus calling for $0.08 EPS (down 38.5%) and $13.40 billion revenue (down 6%)
• Jefferies upgraded target to $45 but maintained Hold, citing server demand offset by tight capacity and margin headwinds from chip transitions
• RBC initiated at $50 with Sector Perform, acknowledging turnaround progress but highlighting missing AI strategy and foundry uncertainty
• Hold consensus rating based on 8 Buys, 19 Holds, 4 Sells with $43.37 average target implying 7.64% downside
• Full-year outlook expected to disappoint as PC weakness hits March and production bottlenecks limit server opportunity

Intel Corporation faces Wall Street judgment Thursday when Q4 2025 results drop after the closing bell. The semiconductor giant enters earnings season trading near peak levels following a breakout year.

Intel Corporation, INTC

Shares exploded 116-145% higher in 2025. The Nvidia partnership sparked optimism. Progress on 18A technology kept momentum rolling. Federal government backing provided additional support.

Wall Street forecasts $0.08 per share for the quarter. That’s a 38.5% collapse from the prior year period. Revenue projections land at $13.40 billion, reflecting a 6% year-over-year decline.

Analyst sentiment tilts neutral heading into the print. The stock holds a Hold consensus with eight Buy ratings, 19 Hold ratings, and four Sell ratings. The mean price target of $43.37 suggests 7.64% downside risk.

Capacity Crunch Limits Upside Potential

Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis increased his price objective to $45 from $40. He maintained a Hold rating despite the lift. The five-star analyst sees strengthening server demand through 2026.

Capacity constraints present a major obstacle. Intel is reallocating Intel 7/10 production away from entry-level PCs toward legacy server chips. This strategic shift creates supply limitations that cap revenue potential.

PC market deterioration appears imminent. Curtis anticipates weakness beginning in March with at least mid-single digit percentage drops. Elevated memory pricing may trigger specification downgrades or consumer price hikes.

Profitability faces mounting pressure. The Lunar Lake rollout and 18A process ramp will compress margins. Curtis projects margins sliding below 36% compared to Street expectations of 36.1%. This marks a 200 basis point shortfall from December projections.

The analyst anticipates lackluster full-year commentary. Capacity bottlenecks prevent full monetization of server opportunities. PC headwinds and margin squeeze will persist throughout the year.

Missing AI Strategy Raises Questions

RBC Capital analyst Srini Pajjuri opened coverage with a Sector Perform rating and $50 target. The five-star analyst commended management for operational restructuring and balance sheet repair.

Demand trends look encouraging for PCs and servers. Product competitiveness shows improvement across key segments. The Nvidia collaboration strengthens manufacturing credibility.

Short-term obstacles loom large. Elevated memory costs and supply restrictions threaten revenue and margin performance. Pajjuri flagged Intel’s absence of a compelling data center AI roadmap.

Additional upside hinges on margin expansion and foundry execution. The foundry division remains murky with limited transparency around production timelines.

Intel trades at $48.32, approaching its $50.39 52-week peak. Gross profit margin currently registers at 33.02%. Panther Lake processor production targets 70% in-house manufacturing by Q1 2026.

Price targets stretch from $20.40 to $60 across the analyst community. This dramatic spread underscores divergent views on valuation and trajectory.

The CEO recently engaged with President Trump, who praised the sub-2 nanometer CPU processor unveiling. Subsidiary Mobileye disclosed a $900 million purchase of Mentee Robotics set to finalize in early 2026.

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