CHZ: Rise or Fall? January 19, 2026 Scenario Analysis

CHZ is standing at a critical crossroads at the $0.06 level. While the short-term uptrend continues, RSI approaching 67 is giving an overbought signal and Supertrend is showing a bearish signal. Despite a %5.32 daily drop, volume is solid at $105M, but the $0.0600 resistance is being tested. This setup offers equal probability for both breakout and breakdown; traders should prepare for both scenarios.

Current Market Situation

CHZ is currently trading at the $0.06 level, squeezed in the $0.05-$0.06 range with a %5.32 drop in the last 24 hours. The overall trend is classified as uptrend, but mixed signals dominate. RSI at 67.05 shows bullish momentum but is approaching the overbought region. MACD has a positive histogram in favor of bulls, price is holding above EMA20 ($0.05) and preserving the short-term bullish structure. On the other hand, Supertrend is bearish and the $0.07 resistance is strong.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 12 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 3 supports/1 resistance on 3D, balanced 3 supports/3 resistances on 1W. Critical supports at $0.0563 (score 69/100) and $0.0497 (61/100); resistances at $0.0600 (69/100) and $0.0643 (68/100). Volume is supportive at $105.30M, but volatility is low. No news flow, technicals are decisive.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How This Scenario Plays Out?

The bullish scenario is triggered by a clear break above the $0.0600 resistance. If this level is passed with volume-backed close, momentum increases and RSI rises without divergence. MACD histogram expands, EMA20 support strengthens. If Supertrend flips to bullish (while approaching $0.07), a short squeeze could be triggered. For 1W uptrend continuation in MTF, holding above 3D supports ($0.0563) is essential. A %20+ volume increase and BTC stability/confirmation act as catalysts. Invalidated by: close below $0.0563.

Target Levels

First target $0.0643 (score 68/100), if passed, main target at $0.0877 (score 20/100) via Fibonacci extension %161.8. R/R ratio from current $0.06: %46 upside potential. Next levels could extend to $0.10 from MTF resistances, but $0.07 Supertrend confirmation required. Traders can consider long positions on $0.0600 breakout, stop below $0.0563.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario begins with a break of the $0.0563 support. If RSI falls from 67 with divergence (overbought rejection), MACD histogram resets to zero. Drop below EMA20 ($0.05) strengthens Supertrend bearish. Volume spike on downside and BTC weakness (detailed below) increase risks. In MTF, 1D breakdown tests 3D supports, 1W balance breaks. No news but general altcoin rotation is a trigger. Invalidated by: close above $0.0600.

Protection Levels

First protection $0.0497 (score 61/100), if broken, main bear target $0.0266 (score 28/100). R/R: %56 downside risk. MTF supports drop to $0.04, traders can watch for short opportunities on $0.0563 break, stop above $0.0600. Psychological $0.05 level could accelerate panic selling.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: For bull, $0.0600/4H volume-backed breakout + RSI >70 confirmation (momentum continuation). For bear, $0.0563/1D red candle + MACD cross below. Confirmation: Imbalance in volume profile, Supertrend flip. Invalidations clear: Bull scenario below $0.0563, bear above $0.0600. Watch: EMA crossover on 1H/4H timeframes, OBV divergence. Traders should validate their bias with these levels, wait for confirmation instead of early entry.

Bitcoin Correlation

CHZ is highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+), BTC in uptrend at $93,030 but %2.11 drop and Supertrend bearish signals caution for altcoins. If BTC breaks $92,356 support, CHZ tests $0.0563; drop to $90,950 pressures $0.0497. Conversely, if BTC breaks $94,151 resistance ($96,157 target), CHZ bullish scenario strengthens. Dominance increase (BTC Supertrend bearish) carries altcoin dump risk; CHZ traders should watch below BTC $92k, decoupling rare.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

CHZ at $0.06 is pivotal; both scenarios equally likely, traders should focus on risk management. Monitoring list: 1) $0.0600/$0.0563 breakout/breakdown, 2) RSI/MACD divergence, 3) Volume >$120M spike, 4) BTC $92,356 reaction. R/R balanced (~1:1), position sizing critical. For detailed charts, visit CHZ Spot Analysis and CHZ Futures Analysis pages. Verify this analysis with your own research.