APT Bearish Analysis Jan 21

Aptos (APT) stands at a critical crossroads at $1.53; under daily downtrend pressure, it’s preparing to test the $1.4160 support line, while RSI’s oversold signals put the possibility of a limited reaction rally on the table. Market volume remains weak at $92 million, while Bitcoin’s correlation carries additional risk for altcoins.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

Aptos has fallen to $1.53 with a 2.12% loss over the last 24 hours, testing the $1.51-$1.60 daily range. This movement is shaped by the dominance of the overall crypto market’s downtrend; APT’s squeeze below EMA20 ($1.75) reinforces short-term bearish momentum. Volume data remains stable but low at $92 million, indicating that selling pressure is not organized but persistent. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identifies 11 strong levels: 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, and 2 supports/2 resistances confluence on 1W, interpreting the overall picture as weakness before consolidation.

Bitcoin’s 1.58% drop to $88,351 across the market is pulling altcoins down as well. APT has broken its trend downward with a cumulative 15% loss in recent weeks; the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal at $1.92. In this context, a cautious wait-and-see prevails in the spot market for APT, as an upward breakout looks difficult without volume increase. Historically, during similar downtrend periods, APT has experienced 10-20% pullbacks after support tests; the current position is making investors cautious.

The current position shows a slight recovery signal after the 24-hour low of $1.51, but the overall trend is bearish. Long-term investors are watching for a potential base formation on the 1W chart, while short-term traders should focus on resistances. Market sentiment has shifted from neutral to bearish, with social metrics concentrating discussions on support levels.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

The strongest support stands out at $1.4160 (70/100 score); it shows confluence on 1D and 1W timeframes and is a level that has held multiple times in the past. If broken, the next one at $1.5190 (67/100) comes into play, but since this line is just below the current price, a quick test is expected. According to MTF data, these supports are strengthened by reinforcement from 3D; a close below $1.4160 could open the door to bearish targets ($0.7265). Historical data shows a 60% success rate for holding in this region, making it an ideal stop-loss point for short positions.

Resistance Barriers

Among resistances, $1.7050 (67/100) is the main barrier; its proximity to EMA20 blocks short-term rallies. Immediately above are $1.5340 (64/100) and $1.6310 (62/100) levels, playing a pivot role on the daily chart. The Supertrend resistance at $1.92 is the medium-term target; however, MTF confluence (1D/3D) strengthens these levels. Volume increase is essential for an upside breakout; otherwise, fakeout risk is high. These resistances are critical for liquidity hunting in futures trading.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI at 35.69 is approaching the oversold region; while this signals potential reaction buying within the downtrend, the lack of divergence preserves trend strength. The MACD histogram is negative and confirms the bearish crossover, with selling pressure dominant despite momentum weakness below the signal line. EMAs are bearishly aligned: price below EMA20 ($1.75), with EMA50 and EMA200 forming resistance higher up. Supertrend is in bearish mode, and ADX at 28 confirms a medium-strength downtrend in trend strength measurement.

On MTF, 3D RSI has fallen to 42 showing weakness, while 1W MACD may signal a slight positive divergence. Overall, momentum is bearish but oversold conditions increase the chance of a short-term squeeze. Looking at the volume profile, spikes on declines support sellers; OBV confirmation is needed for upside. These indicators point to the final downwave before consolidation.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

From the current $1.53, the risk/reward profile makes the bearish target $0.7265 (1:2 R/R, score 22) attractive, while the bullish $2.3844 (1:1.5 R/R, score 30) is low probability. A 5-8% reaction rally is likely if support holds, but a $1.4160 break could trigger a 30% drop. Volatility is low (2.5% ATR), highlighting range-bound trades. For risk management, 1-2% capital allocation is recommended; longs focused on resistance breaks, shorts on support breaks.

Overall outlook is bearish neutral: while the downtrend continues, BTC stabilization could give APT breathing room. In the short term, a $1.51-$1.63 range is expected, with MTF confluence determining the breakout direction. Investors should follow additional data from APT detailed analysis pages. In a positive scenario, a return to EMA20 is on the table; in negative, $1.40 tests are in focus.

Bitcoin Correlation

APT moves in 0.85% correlation with BTC; Bitcoin’s downtrend at $88,351 (24h -1.58%) is pressuring altcoins. BTC supports at $88,261, $86,759, and $84,681 are critical; if they don’t hold, APT could face an additional 10-15% pressure. Resistances at $88,380, $90,924, and $92,444; since BTC Supertrend is bearish, APT rally remains limited. If BTC closes below $88k, APT will quickly test $1.4160; stabilization triggers joint recovery.