China’s humanoid robot sales are expected to double in 2026

China’s humanoid robot makers are looking at a big year ahead. They expect to sell 28,000 units in 2026, that’s more than twice what they sold the year before.

Morgan Stanley, the U.S. investment firm, says dropping production costs are the main reason these high-tech machines are becoming affordable for more buyers.

That’s a big jump from what Morgan Stanley first thought would happen. The firm originally figured Chinese companies would sell 14,000 units, but factories ramped up production faster than anyone expected after moving past the testing stage earlier this year.

Unitree Robotics, one of the bigger local makers, had already shipped more than 5,500 humanoid robots by January 2026. The company landed deals to supply robots for major national events, including the annual CCTV Spring Festival Gala broadcast.

Production costs falling fast

China has most of the world’s robot parts manufacturing, and costs there are dropping quickly. Morgan Stanley figures material costs will fall 16 percent in 2026. Bain & Co, a consulting firm, thinks component prices around the world will drop about 70 percent by 2035.

Currently, 63% of the worldwide supply chain for humanoid robotics is controlled by China. Important components, such as high-torque actuators and sensors, are produced by regional vendors like Inovance Technology and Tuopu Group. Their pricing makes it challenging for Western corporations to keep up.

Buyers will see these savings. Morgan Stanley thinks humanoid robots will sell for around $21,000 by 2050 in middle and lower-income countries, including China. Compare that to $50,000 in 2024. In richer countries like the United States, prices should drop from $200,000 to $75,000 over the same period.

Government money pushing things forward

Government investment has been key to how fast this industry is growing. In 2025, Beijing called humanoid robots a “new productive force.” Officials set up a state-funded venture capital program aimed at nearly 1 trillion yuan, that’s $138 billion, in investment over the next 20 years.

Local governments are chipping in too. Shenzhen rolled out subsidy programs worth up to $630 million to boost research and manufacturing in embodied intelligence and automation.

Uses expanding beyond factories

These robots are beginning to appear outside of industrial floors. In 2025, the Chinese State Council released guidelines advocating for the use of humanoid robots in hospitals and nursing homes. Due to China’s aging population and declining birth rates, this helps close labor shortages.

Businesses are increasingly embracing it more quickly. According to a survey done last year, 62% of Chinese companies intend to employ humanoid robot systems during the next three years. They’re most interested in professions they describe as risky, filthy, and monotonous.

Morgan Stanley thinks mass adoption is just around the corner. The bank predicts roughly 25.4 million humanoid robots will be working around the world by 2036. That would make up 2 percent of the broader robotics sector that includes robotic arms and wheeled units.

People in the industry are calling 2026 the “year of application.” That means moving from test programs to actual real-world use. This shift is expected to grow into a $5 trillion global market by mid-century.

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