Bitcoin Cycle Reset: On-Chain Data Suggests Accumulation Phase Over Market Top

TLDR:

• Bitcoin’s Realized Cap reached new all-time highs, indicating fresh capital inflows beyond speculation.
• Long-term holders attempted distribution in late 2025 but market absorbed selling pressure effectively.
• Bitcoin has consolidated between $80,000 and $120,000 for nearly eighteen months amid global rallies.
• On-chain metrics suggest mid-cycle reset rather than peak as holders return to accumulation patterns.

Bitcoin’s current market structure suggests the cycle may not be nearing its end, according to recent on-chain data analysis.

Realized Cap metrics have reached new all-time highs, indicating fresh capital continues entering the network beyond mere price speculation.

Long-term holders attempted a significant distribution in late 2025, but the selling pressure was absorbed by the market. This pattern historically precedes further upside movement rather than a definitive market top.

On-Chain Metrics Point to Renewed Accumulation Phase

The Realized Cap indicator provides insight into the actual capital invested in Bitcoin rather than just its market valuation. This metric’s climb to new highs demonstrates real money flow into the network.

CryptosRus pointed out that “Realized Cap just pushed to new highs” and emphasized that “real money is still entering the network, not just price speculation.”

The analyst noted that long-term holders made a substantial attempt to distribute their holdings in late 2025. However, the market absorbed this selling pressure without collapsing.

Price levels held firm despite the increased supply hitting exchanges. Following the failed distribution attempt, long-term holder positioning has reversed course.

CryptosRus explained that “long-term holders tried to distribute hard in late 2025 — and it failed.” The analyst added that “selling pressure dried up, price held, and now LTH net position has flipped back toward accumulation.”

This behavioral change carries historical significance. When original holders stop selling and begin adding to positions, the cycle typically enters a reset phase.

The current setup resembles consolidation before continuation rather than exhaustion. CryptosRus stated that “when long-term holders stop selling and start adding again, the cycle isn’t done — it’s resetting for the next leg.”

Market participants view this as a structural shift that could support higher prices ahead. The analyst concluded that “this looks less like a top… and more like consolidation before continuation.”

The absorption of long-term holders selling represents a transfer of supply from experienced hands to new participants. This process often marks intermediate bottoms rather than cycle peaks.

Supply stops hitting the market as original holders retain their positions. Meanwhile, demand continues to build through the rising Realized Cap figures. The combination creates conditions that have historically preceded renewed bull market legs.

Extended Consolidation Period Raises Questions About Market Direction

Bitcoin has traded within an $80,000 to $120,000 range for nearly eighteen months. This extended period of indecision stands in contrast to global risk assets.

Most traditional markets have posted significant gains during the same timeframe. Daan Crypto Trades observed that there has been “nearly 1.5 years of very indecisive price action.”

The trader noted that “pretty much every risk asset in the world skyrocketed higher as BTC has chopped around in this $80K-$120K area.”

The recent drawdown from peak to trough measured 36 percent, according to Daan Crypto Trades. However, the trader pointed out that “that number gets much larger when you start comparing some of the charts against BTC.”

The relative performance comparison reveals a more pronounced decline. Daan Crypto Trades suggested that “you could assume that we’re already pretty far along in a bear trend.”

The dollar’s depreciation during this period adds another layer to the analysis. Daan Crypto Trades mentioned that “the dollar lost a lot of its value during this timeframe.” When adjusted for currency devaluation, Bitcoin’s purchasing power shows different results.

Some analysts suggest the extended consolidation resembles bear market characteristics. Yet on-chain data tells a different story about underlying accumulation and capital inflows.

The year 2026 presents critical tests for Bitcoin’s market structure. Daan Crypto Trades stated that “2026 is going to be a pretty interesting year I think.”

The trader emphasized that “it’s going to be important to not get chopped up during the sideways periods as always.” Opportunities will emerge when clear directional moves develop.

Daan Crypto Trades advised traders to “be active when the market gives opportunities.” The resolution of current tensions between price action and on-chain metrics will likely define Bitcoin’s trajectory through the coming months.

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