Coinbase analyst: Claim that "gold led the Bitcoin rally" lacks supporting data.
PANews reported on February 3 that David Duong, Global Head of Investment Research at Coinbase, pointed out in an article that the prevailing narrative that "a rise in gold prices will drive up Bitcoin prices" is a misconception. He believes that the recent plunge in gold prices after the announcement of the Federal Reserve Chair nominee proves that gold trading is more based on momentum than on the logic of "currency devaluation," fundamentally shaking the narrative many people impose on gold.
This viewpoint is based on a quantitative analysis report from Coinbase Institutional. The report points out that, in order to verify the relationship between the two, the research team did not simply choose a specific time delay to look for correlation, but instead conducted comprehensive statistical tests on multiple time windows ranging from one week to one year to explore whether there is a stable and exploitable correlation between the start of a gold bull market and the start of a Bitcoin bull market.
The analysis shows that there is no consistent evidence to suggest that strong returns in gold will ultimately lead to strong returns in Bitcoin. The relationship between the two varies across different time windows, sometimes showing a positive correlation and sometimes a negative correlation, and most associations lack statistical significance. Therefore, the analysis concludes that the view that "rising gold prices are a leading indicator of rising Bitcoin prices" is not supported by statistical data.
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