ASTER Technical Analysis Feb 4

ASTER’s RSI has declined to the 38 level, approaching the oversold region, while MACD confirms bearish momentum with a negative histogram, and trading below EMA20 creates pressure. Indicators generally support the downtrend, but the increase in volume makes support tests critical.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

ASTER is currently trading at the 0.56 dollar level and has squeezed into a daily range of 0.54-0.60 dollars with a 5.05% decline over the last 24 hours. The overall trend direction is downward, and momentum indicators clearly confirm this bearish structure. The 14-period RSI is at 38.08 in the neutral zone but advancing toward oversold (below 30), signaling weakening short-term momentum. The expansion of the negative histogram in MACD increases selling pressure, while the price remaining below EMA20 (0.62 dollars) indicates a short-term bearish trend. The Supertrend indicator also gives a bearish signal and highlights the 0.73 dollar resistance. Volume at 249.99 million dollars is at a notable level; this suggests the decline is supported by volume and that the accumulation/distribution balance has shifted in favor of selling. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, 10 strong levels were detected across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 1 support/3 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. This structure indicates that the overall momentum is downward but potential reactions at supports should not be ignored.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

The RSI 14 value at 38.08 is positioned at a critical threshold in the downtrend. A regular bearish divergence is observed on the daily chart: while the price makes new lows, RSI forms higher lows, which does not signal momentum loss but rather confirms the continuation of selling strength. However, hidden bullish divergence signals can be sought on the 4-hour timeframe; if RSI holds at the 35 level while the price makes new lows below EMA20, this could be an early warning for short-covering. For now, divergences dominate in favor of selling, as persistent trading below the 50 level does not weaken trend strength. The weekly RSI has declined to 42, showing that overall momentum remains bearish in the medium term. Divergence confluence creates a strong sell signal among momentum oscillators.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

RSI at 38.08 is 8 points away from the oversold (below 30) region; as this level approaches, oversold bounce potential increases, but fakeout risk is high in the current downtrend. In previous days, a sharp correction occurred after overbought above 70; now, if below 30 is tested, a reaction supported by volume can be expected. There is compression in the RSI ribbon (4-14 periods), indicating momentum is preparing for consolidation. Overall, RSI gives a sell signal, but a break below 30 should be monitored for an oversold rally.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD is in a bearish position; the signal line is below the MACD line, and the histogram is expanding in the negative zone. This dynamic clarifies that momentum is accelerating in the selling direction – the growth of histogram bars confirms bear strength. The last crossover occurred bearishly 2 days ago and supported the price breakdown below 0.60. No divergence; as the price falls, MACD also renews lows, indicating preserved trend strength. Narrowing of the histogram on the 4-hour chart could be an early recovery signal, but expansion dominates on the daily. Persistent trading below the zero line emphasizes negative medium-term momentum. The MACD histogram supported by volume indicates the current decline is healthy.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

The price is trading below EMA20 (0.62 dollars), strengthening the short-term bearish bias. There is compression between EMA9 and EMA12; the ribbon is sloping downward, and ADX at 25 confirms the downtrend measuring trend strength. The price approaching EMA50 (0.58) is critical; this will be tested as the first support. Short-term EMA dynamics support selling momentum.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

Price compression between EMA50 (0.58) and EMA200 (0.65) shows weakening medium-term trend. While flattening of the ribbon signals momentum loss, persistence below EMA200 preserves the long-term bearish outlook. The 0.5070 support overlaps with EMA100 (score 77/100), making it a strong holding point. EMA systems measure overall trend strength as downward.

Bitcoin Correlation

Bitcoin is in a downtrend around 76,017 dollars with a 2.64% decline; Supertrend is bearish, and supports are at 75,250-72,946 levels. As BTC dominance increases, altcoins are under pressure, and ASTER’s 0.85 correlation with BTC triggers the decline. If BTC cannot break 77,864 resistance, ASTER could slide to the 0.5070 support. Monitor BTC movements for ASTER Spot Analysis and ASTER Futures Analysis; a BTC rally could revive altcoin momentum.

Momentum Result and Expectations

In the confluence of momentum oscillators, RSI at 38, MACD negative histogram expansion, and pricing below EMA solidify the bearish outlook. Main supports at 0.5070 (score 77/100) and 0.5547; if not held with volume, bearish target 0.2622 (score 22) comes into play. In a bullish scenario, a breakout at 0.6092 (score 71/100) opens 0.9130, but low probability. Volume confirmation supports the decline; selling pressure continues unless divergences develop. In the short term, monitor oversold RSI bounce; in the medium term, BTC correlation is decisive. Resistance at 0.6092, support at 0.5070 are critical thresholds.