In brief
- Users of prediction market Myriad put a 36% chance on Bitcoin treasury firm Strategy selling some of its BTC holdings—up from 22% at the start of the week.
- The company’s multiple to net asset value (mNAV) currently sits at 1.08; if it falls below 1, Strategy may be forced to pause Bitcoin purchases.
- Analysts argued that Strategy’s “long-term accumulation thesis remains intact.”
Strategy’s Bitcoin conviction is facing its toughest test yet as the crypto market enters a prolonged downturn.
On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN, users now see a 36% likelihood that the Bitcoin treasury firm will sell some of its BTC holdings before year-end, up from 22% at the start of the week.
The bearish shift comes as Bitcoin plunged below key support levels to trade at $76,039—just below the average purchase price of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings. The cryptocurrency is down 2.9% in the past 24 hours, 15.4% over the past week, and 18.1% over the past month, according to CoinGecko data.
Bitcoin is now down about 40% from its October peak of $126,080, with Myriad users assigning a greater than 72% chance that it falls to $69,000 rather than rebounds to $100,000.
Strategy’s ability to keep buying, or avoid selling, partly hinges on its multiple to net asset value (mNAV), which compares the firm’s enterprise value to the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
An mNAV above 1 means the stock trades at a premium to its BTC, allowing the company to issue shares via at-the-market offerings to fund further purchases.
That ratio currently sits near 1.08; a drop below 1 could slow or pause new buying.
On Myriad, users place a near-90% chance on Strategy’s mNAV dropping to 0.85 rather than ticking up to 1.5, a figure that’s largely unchanged from a month ago.
Will Strategy buy or sell BTC?
Despite the bearish sentiment, analysts remain skeptical that Strategy will liquidate holdings.
“I don’t think the drop in the Bitcoin prices changes anything for Strategy,” Nic Puckrin, digital asset analyst and co-founder of Coin Bureau, told Decrypt.
He argued that the firm’s co-founder and chair, Michael Saylor, has “always been prepared for a downturn, as any Bitcoin investor with experience would be,” adding that, “He’s not facing any forced liquidations, and the first tranche of the convertible bonds isn’t due until early next year.”
“In the near term, I do not expect Strategy to buy more BTC because the BTC spot price-to-average Strategy’s purchase price ratio is 1, which could be dilutive,” Aurelie Barthere, Principal Research Analyst at Nansen, told Decrypt.
The firm has, to date, continued to buy Bitcoin, announcing a further purchase of 855 BTC on February 2. Saylor continued to strike a bullish note, tweeting, “1. Buy Bitcoin 2. Don’t Sell the Bitcoin” Tuesday.
“Will Strategy sell BTC? It will depend on whether they have set aside a cash reserve to meet their cash obligations, mainly for preferred stock dividends,” Barthere added.
The world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin holder faces mounting pressure as its stock bleeds value for an eighth consecutive month, with the company currently holding 713,502 BTC, worth over $52 billion at current prices.
MSTR has cratered from its November 2024 peak of $540 to around $133, a drop of over 75%, according to Yahoo Finance data. According to the firm’s website, it holds a cash reserve of $2.25 billion, enough to cover 30 months of dividend payments.
“While their long-term accumulation thesis remains intact, any decision to sell would likely reflect opportunistic pricing or capital reallocation needsnot a fundamental shift in their conviction,” Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of RedStone, told Decrypt.
The key variable, Kazmierczak said, isn’t whether the firm could sell, but “whether the risk-reward at current levels justifies their allocation strategy.”
Decrypt has reached out to Strategy for comment.
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Source: https://decrypt.co/356903/sentiment-shifts-on-strategys-bitcoin-bid-as-crypto-market-selloff-deepens
