Trading Moment: Major Global Assets Experience Huge Volatility, Bitcoin "Halve" in Price, Where is the Bottom?

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

On February 6th, global financial markets experienced a "Black Friday," with mainstream assets initially showing gains across the board. However, a massive sell-off intensified on Wall Street, affecting almost all sectors, with only 200 stocks rising in the S&P 500. Weak employment data fueled investor concerns about economic resilience. US job openings in December fell to their lowest level since 2020, while January layoffs hit a record high since 2009. All three major stock indexes fell by more than 1%. Technology stocks were particularly hard hit, with the software sector declining for the eighth consecutive day. Related ETFs plunged 5%, and SaaS software stocks fell to their lowest level since November 2023. UBS analysts warned of an existential threat to the software sector, with large tech companies like Microsoft and Google under pressure due to anticipated capital expenditures. (Related reading: The hottest trades on Wall Street, all retreating )

In the precious metals market, the CME Group announced another increase in margin requirements for gold and silver futures this morning , raising gold from 8% to 9% and silver from 15% to 18%. This move caused spot silver to continue its sharp decline, falling to $64 at one point before rebounding to $73. Gold also saw a slight dip before rebounding. UBS stated that the monthly volatility of the silver market has reached 100%, and significant price fluctuations are possible in the short term . Kitco published an article stating that both gold and silver futures prices have formed bearish patterns, with gold bears targeting the $4423 support level and silver bears potentially targeting a drop below $70. Although CIBC still predicts that the average price of gold will reach $6000 and silver $105 by 2026, the safe-haven appeal has failed in the short term.

Meanwhile, Asian markets also came under pressure. The Nikkei 225 index fell 1.57% intraday before rising 0.81%; the South Korean KOSPI index plunged as much as 5%, triggering a circuit breaker. Analysts believe that the yield on Japanese 40-year government bonds breaking 4% for the first time in over 30 years could trigger the unwinding of trillions of dollars in "yen carry trades," thereby draining liquidity from global markets . Geopolitically , although the confirmation that US-Iran negotiations will be held on Friday may provide some respite for the market, Trump's call for a new agreement with Russia on the expiration of the New START Treaty, and Putin's suspension of participation in the treaty, have added uncertainty to the global situation.

Bitcoin underwent a true halving, but only in terms of price, plummeting from a high of $126,200 to a low of $60,000, a drop of over 52%. In the past 24 hours, over 570,000 people in the crypto market have been liquidated, resulting in $2.561 billion in losses. Vida, founder of Equation , pointed out that Binance's USD1 wealth management service attracted approximately $2-3 billion in arbitrage funds, and caution is advised regarding a potential breakout when BTC falls to $55,000. Regarding future price predictions, pessimistic voices dominate: financial services company Stifel predicts, based on long-term trend lines, that Bitcoin's price may fall to around $38,000; analysts from Modern Rock, Butcher, Jaguar Analytics, and GEM DETECTER, based on data on the largest drops in Bitcoin's past bear markets (93% in November 2011, 84% in January 2015, 83% in December 2018, and 76% in November 2022), point out that the maximum drop in each bear market is gradually decreasing . Based on this trend, it is predicted that the price of Bitcoin in this cycle may fall by about 70% from its peak, possibly to the $34,000 to $38,000 range. GEM DETECTER believes that Bitcoin may attract buying interest around $50,000, but will eventually fall below $40,000. Gem Detecter points out that if the $60,000-$64,000 range is breached, it could fall to $45,000 or even $30,000. Crypto Painter points out that BTC has reached oversold territory, and if it doesn't rebound, it could go to $55,000. He also mentions that the minimum shutdown price for mining rigs is $38,000 . (Related reading: No Black Swan Events, Four Atypical Speculations on the Culprits Behind Bitcoin Oversold Conditions )

The entire crypto market was gripped by extreme panic, with the Fear & Greed Index plummeting to 9 , its lowest level since June 2022, and market sentiment reaching rock bottom. Ethereum also suffered a severe blow, with its price briefly falling below $1,800, a drop of over 60% from its all-time high of $4,950. Cyrili's analysis pointed out that ETH has broken below its key demand zone, and if it cannot quickly recover to the $2,200-$2,400 range, it will decline further. Solana was not spared either, briefly falling below $70, a new low since December 2023. Cyrili pointed out that it has broken below its key trading range, and if it does not quickly recover, the next support level will be $50-$30. The altcoin market was even more disastrous. According to Delphi Digital, since January 2025, 97% of altcoins have been in a downtrend, with an average drawdown of 78%, and only HYPE, SYRUP, and BCH have seen gains.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, February 6)

(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

• Bitcoin: $65,341 (down 25.51% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $162.27 billion.

• Ethereum: $1,911 (year-to-date -35.77%), daily spot trading volume $71.9 billion.

• Fear of Greed Index: 9 (Extreme Panic)

• Average GAS: BTC: 10.06 sat/vB, ETH: 0.35 Gwei

• Market share: BTC 58.2%, ETH 10.3%

• Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, SOL, DOGE

• 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.72%/51.28%

• Sector Performance: Crypto sector suffered across-the-board losses, with PayFi leading the decline at nearly 14%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 571,371 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $2.561 billion. This included $1.315 billion in BTC liquidations, $562 million in ETH liquidations, and $188 million in SOL liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of February 5)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$434 million, marking the third consecutive day of net outflows.

• Ethereum ETF: -$80.7923 million

• SOL ETF: +$2.82 million

4. Today's Outlook

• Binance will remove cross and isolated margin trading pairs such as KNC/BTC and COTI/BTC on February 6th.

• Strategy will release its Q4 2025 financial results and hold a video conference on February 6.

• The US government is partially shut down, and the US non-farm payroll report will not be released for the time being.

The largest declines among the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization today were: Stable down 25.3%, Official Trump down 19.9%, Optimism down 19.1%, LEO Token down 18%, and Jupiter down 16.2%.

5. Hot News

• Strategy CEO: Bitcoin needs to fall to $8,000 and remain there for years before threatening its debt repayment.

• Trend Research deposited 20,000 ETH into Binance, and then allegedly sold 47,000 ETH within 6 hours.

• Glassnode: Over 9.3 million Bitcoins are currently trading at a loss, a new high since January 2023.

• Bitcoin's Ahr999 indicator has fallen below the buy-the-dip level to 0.27, similar to the levels seen during the FTX crash and the "316" crash.

• Delphi Digital: Since January of last year, 97% of altcoins have been in a downtrend, with an average drawdown of 78%.

• Santiment: Whale holdings of BTC hit a 9-month low, while retail holdings rose to a 20-month high.

• The cryptocurrency market lost $1 trillion in 22 days, averaging $45 billion in losses per day.

• Yi Lihua transferred another 8,000 ETH to Binance, with a liquidation range of $1,523 to $1,681.

• MSTR reported a net loss of $12.4 billion in Q4 2025, causing its stock price to plummet 17% that day.

• Saylor's unrealized losses exceed $10.1 billion, and Tom Lee's unrealized losses exceed $8.65 billion.

• The USDT OTC price on the Binance platform rose to 7.1 yuan, and the selling price rose to 7.03 yuan.

• Bitcoin plunged 15.48% in a single day, marking its biggest single-day drop since the FTX crash.

• Deribit: Over $2.5 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire this Friday

• A wallet suspected of being linked to Multicoin Capital exchanged a large amount of ETH for HYPE tokens.