XRP Slips Under Realized Price, Echoing 2022 Setup

XRP price recently fell below $1.50, extending its correction and reviving a bottom signal last seen nearly two years ago. The decline pushed XRP under its realized price, a key on-chain metric.

Panic selling followed, yet some investor cohorts now view this weakness as a potential opportunity. However, historical patterns suggest a deeper consolidation or an emerging value zone for accumulation.

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XRP Holders Are Selling

Investor skepticism is rising as the XRP price struggles to stage a meaningful recovery. Both retail holders and large investors are reducing exposure. The lack of sustained upside momentum has weakened confidence, reinforcing concerns about prolonged downside risk in the current crypto market cycle.

On-chain data shows that addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 XRP have trimmed positions. Larger wallets holding between 100 million and 1 billion XRP have also sold aggressively. Collectively, these cohorts offloaded about 350 million XRP over the past five days.

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This wave of distribution is valued at more than $483 million. Such significant outflows highlight growing pessimism among key market participants. Persistent selling from whales often influences broader sentiment, increasing short-term volatility and pressuring XRP price stability.

Is XRP Marking a Bottom Or Extended Decline?

The macro outlook for XRP centers on the realized price metric. Realized price reflects the average cost basis of all circulating coins. It offers a clearer view of aggregate investor positioning than spot price alone.

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Currently, XRP’s spot price trades below its realized price.

When the spot price falls under the realized price, the market often enters a loss-making phase. This condition was last observed in July 2024. Historically, such setups can signal a potential bottom.

However, recovery is not always immediate and may require extended consolidation.

A comparable pattern unfolded in 2022. After the early 2021 rally, XRP gradually declined.

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When the price dropped to a realized price below in May 2022, the bottom extended until March 2023. If history repeats, XRP could experience a prolonged consolidation phase rather than a swift rebound.

Institutions Remain Optimistic

Despite retail caution, institutional investors continue to show interest in XRP. According to CoinShares data, XRP recorded inflows of $63.1 million in the week ending February 6. This performance outpaced Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana during the same period.

Year-to-date flows into XRP products now total $109 million. In contrast, Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen net outflows. This divergence suggests institutions may view XRP’s utility and cross-border payment use case as resilient within the broader digital asset market.

Institutional inflows can provide price support during periods of weakness. Sustained capital allocation from asset managers may limit downside risk. While not eliminating volatility, these inflows could prevent the XRP price from extending its bottom into a prolonged consolidation cycle.

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XRP Price Bounce Back On The Cards

XRP price trades at $1.38 at publication, holding slightly above the $1.37 support level. The short-term outlook appears semi-bullish amid mixed investor signals. While selling pressure remains visible, institutional inflows and historical bottom patterns offer cautious optimism.

The immediate objective for XRP is to reclaim $1.52 as support. That level could act as a psychological pivot, reducing selling pressure. If investor sentiment improves and buying resumes, XRP price may advance toward $1.77 and potentially test the $2.00 threshold.

However, failure to generate sustained bullish momentum would increase downside risk. A decisive break below $1.37 could expose XRP to $1.26. Losing that level may invalidate the constructive outlook and open the path toward $1.12 under continued market weakness.