Bitcoin to $49K? Expert Warns After 5,000 BTC Whale Dump

• Garrett Jin sold 5,000 BTC worth $348M as Bitcoin trades near $70K, with price down 27.9% over the past month.
• Analyst sets $49K BTC target, citing bear cycle timing, while Fear and Greed Index drops to 11 in extreme fear zone.
• 1,651 BTC worth $113.9M moved to Binance as exchange netflows hit -$450M during recent price volatility.

Bitcoin rebounded above $70,000, yet analysts warn that downside risks remain after a major whale transaction. A large holder identified as Garrett Jin sold 5,000 BTC worth about $348 million. Market observers are assessing whether the move could precede a deeper correction toward $49,000.

Analyst Points to Bear Cycle Timing

Crypto analyst Colin Talks Crypto stated that Bitcoin has been in a bear phase since October 6, 2025. He said a typical bear market lasts about one year from peak to trough. Based on that pattern, he estimated the market is roughly 35 percent through the cycle.

He placed a potential bottom range between $32,000 and $60,000. However, he identified $49,000 as his primary downside target. “$49,000 is my single best prediction,” he said when outlining his forecast.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $70,000. Despite the recent rebound, it remains down 27.9 percent over the past month. CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index stands at 11, signaling “Extreme Fear.”

Macro Downtrend Still in Focus

Other analysts also flagged ongoing weakness in market structure. Crypto expert Scient said previous bear markets ended only after Bitcoin moved beyond its macro downtrend. He cited 2019 and 2022 as examples of such shifts.

Scient stated that the breakout did not occur exactly at the bottom in prior cycles. He added that Bitcoin remains in a clear macro downtrend. According to him, there are no confirmed signals of strength yet.

Another analyst known as The Great Martis described Bitcoin momentum as “plummeting.” He said any short-term bounce may remain weak. He also noted that extended sideways movement could follow before a trend reversal forms.

Whale Activity and Exchange Flows Shift

On-chain data from Lookonchain showed that Garrett Jin sold 5,000 BTC. The transaction was valued at approximately $348.82 million. Reports also indicated he withdrew 53.12 million USDT from Binance, likely linked to the sale.

Despite the sale, Jin still holds more than 30,000 BTC. That remaining balance is valued at about $2.09 billion. Large transactions from prominent holders often draw attention due to their potential market effects.

Whale Alert also reported that 1,651 BTC worth about $113.9 million moved to Binance from an unknown wallet. Exchange netflow data showed sharp swings in recent days. On February 3, netflows reached negative $450 million, which aligned with Bitcoin falling toward the $65,000 to $68,000 range by February 6.

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