Which sectors performed best during the Spring Festival? A review of BTC and A-share data during the Spring Festival of 2011.

Author: Shouyi, Amelia I Biteye Content Team

On New Year's Eve, the market presented a highly controversial picture: on one hand, the A-share market was booming with pre-holiday sentiment and frequent policy benefits ; on the other hand, the cryptocurrency market was stuck in high-level fluctuations and even broke the "ironclad rule of history" .

Various jokes and discussions about "whether to sell cryptocurrency and buy stocks" are rampant. Faced with these two markets with drastically different characteristics, how should investors choose? Since we're here during the Chinese New Year, let Biteye analyze the current investment logic for you using the latest data.

I. Core Conclusion: The Spring Festival Market Rally is Not a "Two-Way" Competition

Before delving into the data, we need to clarify a basic understanding: BTC and A-shares each have their own independent "Spring Festival effect," but simply comparing their gains side-by-side is not scientific.

Data as of February 14, 2026 UTC (based on CoinGecko BTC daily OHLC data and Shanghai Stock Exchange announcements)

Statistical criteria: The closing price of the last trading day before the Spring Festival to the closing price of the first trading day after the holiday (approximately 7-8 calendar days, excluding weekend closures) will be used to ensure complete alignment between the A-share and BTC time windows.

Key observations:

• The Chinese New Year effect on BTC : Before 2025, BTC maintained a record of positive returns during the Chinese New Year for 10 consecutive years (2015-2024), but broke this "ironclad rule" for the first time in 2025 (a drop of -2.3%), and the weakness may continue in 2026. This signifies a shift in BTC pricing power from Chinese capital cycles to global macro assets.
• Policy benefits for A-shares : The A-share market's performance during the Spring Festival was mainly driven by the easing of liquidity before the holiday and policy expectations after the holiday. In January 2026, the STAR Market 50 index saw a maximum monthly increase of 15.81%, exhibiting typical characteristics of a "spring rally".

By learning from history, we can understand the rise and fall of dynasties.

By comparing the historical data over 11 years, we can discover the evolution of patterns.

II. The "Iron Law" of BTC Failed

For a long time, the cryptocurrency market has seen a "red envelope rally" around the Spring Festival. This rally has lasted for 10 consecutive years within a "small cycle" of 7 days before and after the Spring Festival (3 days before and 3 days after, for example, February 14 to February 20, 2026), without ever faltering.

Looking back at this "golden decade" of growth, the increase rose from a slight increase of +0.8% in 2015 to nearly +20% in 2018 and 2024. This is no small "bonus"; it can be described as a "year-end bonus" for cryptocurrency investors.

However, the capital market has the power to punish all dissent.

In 2025, this “ironclad rule” was broken for the first time, with BTC falling from $101,332 to $98,997 during the Spring Festival, a drop of -2.3%; in 2026, this curse seems to continue and intensify. In the 31 days from January 15 to February 15, BTC experienced a violent shakeout. It fell from a high of $97,193 to a low of $60,000 . Although it rebounded to around $70,000 on Valentine’s Day night, the maximum drop in this range still reached 38.27% . [1]

What does this mean? In financial markets, a drop of more than 20% is usually considered to be the start of a "technical bear market," while a drop of nearly 40% is considered a deep correction or a crash.

According to on-chain data, the current MVRV (market value to realized value ratio) has dropped to 1.25 and the NUPL (unrealized profit and loss ratio) has dropped to 0.20 . [2] The low levels of these two indicators indicate that the decline over the past month has cleared out a large amount of leveraged chips, and the market is in a typical deleveraging and risk aversion phase , rather than a period of frenzy.

The failure of the "red envelope" (Chinese New Year) market trend reflects a fundamental shift in BTC pricing power. It has moved from a cyclical phenomenon dominated by Chinese capital to a global macro asset driven by Bitcoin ETFs such as BlackRock and Fidelity. Its price movements are increasingly correlated with US stocks and dollar liquidity, rendering traditional seasonal patterns based on the Lunar New Year ineffective.

It seems that the strategy of simply relying on calendars to buy coins really needs to be changed.

III. Policy Benefits for A-Shares

Many believe the cryptocurrency market is currently experiencing a bear market, while global stock markets are booming, with even the A-share market benefiting from policy stimulus and supporting Ethereum. Coupled with a strengthening RMB exchange rate, "withdrawing from cryptocurrency and investing in stocks" seems like a wise move. We will compare these two perspectives from three dimensions:

First, yield and volatility. A-shares are a typical policy-driven market. Under strong fiscal stimulus, the A-share sector indices recorded significant gains in January, with the STAR Market 50 index showing a maximum monthly gain of 15.81% [3]. Trading volume increased significantly, and the overall market showed a pattern of "steady index rise and widespread stock gains". BTC , on the other hand, is heavily reliant on global liquidity. Although it performed poorly during the Spring Festival, BTC is still in a period of consolidation after the halving. Its underlying logic lies in the dollar tide, rather than domestic policies.

Second, long-term compound interest. Based on a ten-year data comparison from 2016 to 2025, Bitcoin’s average annual compound return is about 70.16% ; while A-shares, taking the CSI 300 as a reference, have an average annual compound return of about 2.93% [4]. A-shares win in the short term due to policy bursts, while BTC wins in the long term due to compound interest and global liquidity premium.

Thirdly, there is the exchange rate factor. This is the most critical variable at present. On February 13, 2026, as the central bank allowed the RMB to break through the 6.90 mark before the Spring Festival, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar hit a new high in nearly three years[5]. This means that holding US dollar assets (such as BTC/USDT) will naturally face exchange rate losses when converted back to RMB. As Sina Finance pointed out, the core driving force of this round of RMB appreciation is "the concentrated settlement of foreign exchange by enterprises before the Spring Festival". This not only means exchange rate losses, but also reveals the flow of funds: real enterprises are selling off their US dollar positions (including some USDT off-exchange funds) to meet the RMB payment needs during the Spring Festival. This liquidity "drainage effect" puts US dollar assets under natural pressure; while holding RMB assets (A shares) enjoys the double boost of asset appreciation and exchange rate appreciation . This indeed provides strong logical support for "short-term switching to A shares".

There's an old Chinese saying, "Those who understand the times are wise." It seems like it really is time to switch from cryptocurrency to A-shares?

IV. The Correlation Myth: A-shares and cryptocurrencies represent two different funding logics.

For those still holding on in the cryptocurrency market, is it possible to maintain their faith through the "seesaw effect"? That is, is the A-share market currently draining funds from the cryptocurrency market, and once the A-share market falls, will the funds flow back into the cryptocurrency market?

That's not the case.

First, the two exhibit a weak correlation. A-shares are influenced by the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China, while BTC is affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Although their respective capital pools partially overlap (among Chinese investors), they are two independent systems at the macro level.

Secondly, there is a certain degree of "extreme co-directionality" between the two. Under extreme risks, they often fluctuate in the same direction. For example, on February 6, 2026, the market witnessed a typical "triple whammy" – US stocks, gold, and Bitcoin all plummeted simultaneously. This completely disproved the simple "inverse relationship" logic.

Therefore, it's difficult to expect an A-share market crash to save the cryptocurrency market, and one shouldn't blindly increase their Bitcoin holdings just because of an A-share market correction. A negative correlation only exists under one specific circumstance: when domestic funds engage in cross-market allocation for hedging purposes. However, this is constrained by capital controls and is unlikely to achieve a significant scale effect.

Conclusion: Children make choices, adults want it all.

Going back to the original question: Should I invest in stocks or cryptocurrencies during the Chinese New Year?

The answer should not be a gamble of "either/or," but rather a combination of strategies based on the Merrill Lynch Investment Clock concept.

The domestic and international situations need to be considered. Domestically, the recovery expectation is strong, and the A-share beta returns are attractive, making it worthwhile to allocate funds to capture policy dividends; internationally, inflation expectations persist, the liquidity inflection point has not yet arrived, and BTC, as "digital gold," remains a core tool for combating fiat currency devaluation.

Biteye recommends: Adopt a "dumbbell strategy".

Instead of constantly switching between two markets, enduring high transaction fees and the psychological torment of missing out, it's better to build a stable portfolio:

1. One end of the dumbbell (steady offense): Actively allocate to A-share ETFs or high-quality blue-chip stocks . Capitalize on the RMB appreciation and policy support to fully benefit from this rally, but also be wary of signals from the central bank to prevent overshooting and avoid blindly chasing highs.

2. The other end of the dumbbell (high-odds defense): Hold onto your core BTC holdings . Despite significant short-term volatility (such as a 38% drawdown), given the historical inertia of halving cycles, a complete liquidation could mean permanently losing your low-priced holdings.

The Spring Festival of 2026 may be the most "disjointed" in recent years. The strong resurgence of the RMB corresponds to a brief winter in the crypto market. But remember, cycles may be delayed, but they will not be absent. Stock trading requires following the "weathervane" (policy), while cryptocurrency trading requires following the "cycle table" (halving and liquidity). In this volatile market, hold onto your chips, whether it's the red A-shares or the orange Bitcoin; survival is the key to winning, and this is the "New Year's attitude" of a mature investor.