Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle Analysis – Why Analysts Are Eyeing a $50,000 Bottom in 2026

The crypto market has long been characterized by a repeating cycle of price fluctuations, commonly referred to as the four-year cycle of price fluctuations. Recently, leading market analyst Ash Crypto helped fuel debate on social media concerning a potential market bottom for Bitcoin at $50,000 as we approach 2026. Ash’s forecast draws on historical technical indicators and RSI, suggesting that while we may encounter significant price corrections, Bitcoin’s long-term structural integrity remains robust compared to its actual price movements.

The Significance of the Monthly RSI and $50,000 Support

This review’s main focus is on the Monthly Relative Strength Index, which is a way of measuring how fast and how quickly a price changes. Based on an Ash Crypto Chart, there are historical examples when the Monthly RSI fell below the 40 level, and these levels usually correspond with some type of cyclical bottom. Again, the Monthly RSI for both 2018 and 2022 helped signify a bearish trend was exhausted; thus, those were significant turning points before the market turned back up.

The $50K benchmark isn’t just psychological, this level aligns with a decade-long upward trend line connecting significant low points, if Bitcoin retested that level within 2026 it will have been a higher low than the 2022 low of approximately $15K. Which would validate that even though there might be some volatility in the near term, the macro bullish trend will remain intact.

Historical Context – The Four-Year Cycle Theory

Bitcoin’s halving occurs every 4 years, reducing new supply by 50%. The reduction in supply has led to historically large increases in price during a bull run. The subsequent price collapse led to what is known as the “crypto winter”, which analysts have used to project when the next period of accumulation should start.

According to current market data, recent activity indicates that the market is now moving beyond the 2024 Bitcoin Halving and into what will be known as the “post-halving” period. This is based on data from Glassnode regarding institutional adoption through spot ETF launches or activity on spot exchanges, which has changed the liquidity profile for retail traders. As a result, extreme volatility seen during past cycles has been reduced while the market still maintains a generally cyclical structure. The projections for a bottoming of Bitcoin price in 2026 will also help to time when the next cyclical peak will occur after this latest peak has ended.

Market Maturity and Institutional Influence

Technical charts show how to invest, but there are many differences between the fundamentals of what’s happened from 2018-2020 compared to what’s going to happen in 2026. With more Web3 technologies being developed and being utilized for Decentralized Finance (DeFi), the Blockchain infrastructure is going to be used more often for utility purposes.

A possible move down to $50,000 by either BlackRock or Fidelity, massive institutional money managers, will likely be met with major “buy the dip” activity from institutional diamond hands. This could help prevent the 80–90% drawdowns that were common in the early days of crypto.

Conclusion

The prediction of a $50K bottom for Bitcoin in 2026 may appear bearish to those who have become used to mostly upward price movement. However, in relation to the overall health of the market, this type of correction is simply one part of the broader price discovery process.

By using analytics tools like trend analyzing and monthly RSI, a trader is able to take away or isolate the emotional noise found in trading and rely on mathematical probabilities. As the cryptocurrency space grows & new forms of applications are created in real life, these cycles will give knowledgeable people a strong guideline to protect their long-term wealth.