Move Over M2: Data Shows Treasury T-Bill Issuance Drives Bitcoin Price Cycles

TLDR:

• Treasury T-bill issuance holds a +0.80 correlation with Bitcoin price over the last four years of data.

• M2 money supply has decoupled from Bitcoin, making it an unreliable indicator for forecasting price direction.

• The Fed balance sheet scores a near-zero correlation of -0.07 with Bitcoin, removing it as a credible signal.

• T-bill issuance peaked in late 2024, and Bitcoin has shown renewed weakness as early 2026 issuance declines.

T-bill issuance is gaining recognition as Bitcoin’s most reliable macro indicator, pushing aside long-favored metrics like M2 money supply.

A crypto analyst recently shared data pointing to a +0.80 correlation between Treasury T-bill issuance and Bitcoin over four years.

That figure towers above what M2 and the Federal Reserve balance sheet have managed to produce. With Bitcoin last trading around $67,721, the conversation around macro signals is shifting in a clear direction.

Why M2 and the Fed Balance Sheet No Longer Tell the Full Story

T-bill issuance is stepping into the spotlight as M2 money supply loses its grip as a Bitcoin forecasting tool. Crypto analyst Axel Bitblaze posted on X that Bitcoin has already decoupled from M2 in observable stretches.

During those periods, M2 stayed flat or moved higher, yet Bitcoin did not respond accordingly.

The Federal Reserve balance sheet has also struggled to track Bitcoin’s price behavior with any consistency. Bitblaze recorded the correlation between the Fed balance sheet and Bitcoin at just -0.07. That number effectively removes it from serious consideration as a directional signal.

T-bill issuance, however, has held a +0.80 correlation with Bitcoin across the same four-year period. For a notoriously volatile asset like Bitcoin, that reading carries real weight.

Analysts are now paying closer attention to how Treasury market activity channels liquidity into broader risk appetite.

The Four-Year Timeline That Makes T-Bill Issuance Hard to Ignore

The case for T-bill issuance as a Bitcoin signal is built on a timeline that stretches back to late 2021. Bitblaze noted that issuance peaked around that time, and Bitcoin soon followed with its own cycle top.

When issuance began falling through 2022, Bitcoin crashed in the months that came after.

The connection held again in mid-2023, when T-bill issuance bottomed out alongside Bitcoin’s price floor. From that low point, both began climbing in tandem, with Bitcoin trailing the issuance trend by a visible lag.

Through 2024 and into 2025, rising issuance continued to pull Bitcoin higher with that same delayed rhythm.

Then in late 2024, T-bill issuance peaked once more. As early 2026 arrived, issuance started declining, and Bitcoin’s price weakened in step.

Bitblaze summed it up directly: “When the blue line goes up, BTC follows with a delay. When it rolls over, BTC struggles.” The four-year record now has traders watching Treasury issuance schedules as closely as any on-chain metric.

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