Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Could Rally To $75,000 According to Polymarket

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price prediction on Polymarket jumped 29% to 85% probability of reaching $75,000 before 2027.
• CryptoQuant’s deeply negative Sharpe Ratio historically signals major cycle bottoms.
• Exchange outflows and retail accumulation hint at building upside pressure for the BTC price despite weak technicals.

The latest Bitcoin price prediction from Polymarket suggests the price may surge to $75,000, and that may happen soon. Prediction markets have been more accurate than most analysts this cycle, and right now, traders on Polymarket are giving Bitcoin a high (85%) chance of reaching $75,000 this year.

The contract has seen heavy volume, with yes shares trading near 84 cents. That kind of pricing shows real money believes BTC price can pump from current levels.

This probability jumped 29% today amid shifting market contexts. Bitcoin price surged by 1.7% over the last 24 hours to trade at $67,025 at the time of writing, as bullish on-chain metrics started piling up.

Expert Analyst: “Now is the Best Time for Long-Term Positioning”

A top analyst on CryptoQuant has predicted that Bitcoin is in what he calls a “highest-conviction setup”. CryptoQuant data shows the short-term Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio, which measures risk-adjusted return, plunged to -38.38, one of the lowest readings ever recorded.

A deeply negative short-term reading means the asset is delivering maximum pain per unit of volatility, characterised by sharp and fast drawdowns, signifying capitulation. Historically, every time this metric has dipped below -30, it has marked major bottoms.

The chart shows previous lows in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022, each followed by explosive rallies. Current levels match or beat those extremes. This could be textbook accumulation territory for risk-adjusted buyers.

At -38.38, CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ noted that it was the ideal time for “medium to long-term positioning.”

However, Moreno cautions that the risk of an extended downtrend due to macro-liquidity shock remains significant. In other words, the market may be looking increasingly bullish but traders should move cautiously.

Exchange Outflows Cool the Bears

Meanwhile, selling pressure eased as Bitcoin recorded consistent net outflows from exchanges in recent weeks. When fewer coins are sitting on trading platforms, there is less immediate supply overhang.

Some large investors have been dumping Bitcoin, but the pace has slowed dramatically. The question now is whether bulls can step up and absorb what’s left.

Santiment data shows retail traders are beginning to turn bullish as Bitcoin small wallets comprising 0.1-1 BTC hit a 15-month high with a 1.05% accumulation since October.

On the other hand, mid-tier wallets holding 1-10 BTC sit at a 38-month low. This is good news, as most mid-to-large investors have already been accumulating BTC.

This data is important as it comes just days after Google Trends shows “Bitcoin is going to zero” search term hitting a 5-year high. These searches revealed rising interest in cryptocurrency.

The low Sharpe Ratio previously flashed green during past bear markets before massive moves to the upside. Exchange outflows have reduced available sell-side ammo. Polymarket traders have already priced in a high-probability run to $75,000. All that’s missing is sustained buying volume.

The stars may be aligning for a Bitcoin reversal, according to onchain data. Bitcoin price prediction models that combine prediction market odds, historic Sharpe Ratio extremes, and cooling exchange flows point in one direction: up.

However, technically speaking, there is tension in the chart and beyond. Even though the $75,000 Polymarket prediction may come to pass in 2026, it may face delays. This is because Bitcoin’s recovery is heavily dependent on macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

Analysts now have their sights set on the situation between Iran and the US. How the markets perform in the coming weeks will be heavily influenced by how the situation unfolds.

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