The S&P 500 reached fresh all-time highs, closing at $6,501.86 after a strong earnings report from Nvidia.
Traditional equity markets are running on the back of the AI boom and steady U.S. growth numbers. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has failed to match the same momentum.
At $111,513, Bitcoin price analysis shows BTC disconnected from stocks and commodities, raising questions about whether a correction is coming.
And the correlation risks aren’t helping the price narrative either.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: S&P 500 Climbs, but BTC Breaks From Correlation
The equity rally is being led by Nvidia. The company’s earnings and revenue outlook have supported broader AI optimism, helping the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all push into new record territory.
Alongside this, revised GDP growth at 3.3% has also reinforced a strong macro backdrop for equities.
Bitcoin, however, has not followed. Correlation data shows BTC’s 30-day Pearson correlation with the S&P 500 is now –0.08.
The relationship with gold is slightly negative as well, at –0.05, while the correlation with the Nasdaq is weak at just 0.03.
A negative correlation reading, like Bitcoin’s –0.08 with the S&P 500, means the two are not moving in the same direction. The figure is not a percentage but a statistical value that ranges between –1 and +1.
A value near –1 shows they almost always move opposite, while a value near +1 shows they move together. In this case, –0.08 is very close to zero, which signals almost no relationship.
Put simply: even though the S&P is climbing to all-time highs, Bitcoin is moving independently, which often brings added uncertainty.
This detachment is unusual. Historically, Bitcoin has moved in line with risk assets when equities are rising. A weak or negative correlation during stock market rallies often signals growing volatility ahead for BTC.
Nvidia Stays Strong, but Bitcoin Lags Behind
Nvidia is not just powering the S&P 500; it has also maintained a strong relationship with Bitcoin over the last three months.
The correlation coefficient between Nvidia and Bitcoin sits at 0.86, meaning the two assets have usually moved in the same direction.
The difference is that Nvidia has kept climbing while Bitcoin has stalled. Nvidia shares rose after its earnings, while BTC stayed stuck near $111,513.
As per Bitcoin price analysis, if it were to follow its historical alignment with Nvidia, the expectation would have been a stronger rally.
The lag suggests that buyers in crypto are cautious, or that capital is moving elsewhere for now.
Crypto-related stocks highlight this divergence. MicroStrategy is up 132% year-to-date, and Galaxy Digital has also posted strong gains.
These companies are benefitting more directly from equity market optimism than Bitcoin itself, showing that investors may prefer listed proxies over direct BTC exposure in this environment.
Correction Risks Grow As Bitcoin Price Nears Key Levels
Bitcoin price analysis shows weak performance compared to equities and crypto stocks is also visible in market cap comparisons.
While JPMorgan, Tesla, and Berkshire Hathaway have steadily climbed this year, BTC has been largely flat despite the sizable gains.
This signals that institutional money may currently favor traditional stocks rather than crypto.
At the same time, Bitcoin price analysis shows, technical risks are building. With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at record highs, and Nvidia carrying much of the momentum, Bitcoin’s failure to move in tandem could be a sign of stress.
If correlations do not realign soon, BTC could come under pressure as capital rotates back into equities.
The critical level to watch on the downside is $108,700. If Bitcoin falls below this support, it could trigger deeper moves toward $100,000 or lower.
For the rally to remain intact, buyers will need to step in and restore BTC’s correlation with broader risk assets.
Source: https://www.thecoinrepublic.com/2025/08/29/bitcoin-price-analysis-sp-500-soars-but-btc-risks-correction/
