PI Price Compresses as 173M Tokens Near Unlock

• PI trades below key EMAs as resistance caps recovery momentum
• 173M token unlock in 30 days raises near-term supply pressure
• Network growth accelerates, yet price lags adoption metrics

Pi Network trades under pressure as technical weakness collides with a steady rise in circulating supply. On the 4-hour chart, PI/USDT continues to reflect a broader downtrend despite a sharp rebound from recent lows. 

Price action now compresses beneath major moving averages, while upcoming token unlocks add another layer of uncertainty. Consequently, traders are watching both structure and supply dynamics for direction.

Price Structure Signals Bearish Bias

PI recently completed a full retracement toward $0.1304 after falling from the 1.0 Fibonacci level near $0.2124. That decline triggered a V-shaped recovery. 

However, the rebound stalled near $0.1948, which aligns with the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Strong rejection followed, reinforcing overhead resistance.

Since that rejection, price rotated lower and now trades near $0.1629. The EMA cluster between $0.1655 and $0.1698 acts as immediate resistance. Significantly, price remains below the 200 EMA, which keeps the short-term trend tilted downward.

Immediate resistance stands between $0.1682 and $0.1698. Beyond that, $0.1776 marks upper Bollinger resistance and prior structure. The $0.1811 level, aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement, forms the next barrier.

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On the downside, $0.1534 serves as the first demand zone. A break below that level exposes $0.1497, followed by the major swing low at $0.1304. 

Moreover, narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate compression, which often precedes expansion. Unless bulls reclaim $0.1698 to $0.1776, sellers retain control.

Token Unlocks Add Supply Pressure

Besides technical resistance, token unlocks may influence short-term sentiment. Data updated on February 24, 2026, shows 5.39 billion Pi remain locked. That supply carries an estimated value near $878 million.

Over the next 30 days, 173.12 million Pi will unlock. This amount equals roughly 3.21% of the locked supply. Consequently, daily unlocks average about 5.77 million Pi. The largest single-day release, scheduled for March 7, could exceed 20.7 million tokens.

These unlocks gradually expand circulating supply. However, unreleased Pi outside claimable balances remains untracked. Hence, traders must monitor liquidity shifts carefully.

Network Growth Outpaces Market Reaction

Additionally, network metrics show continued ecosystem expansion. Over 16.2 million users have migrated to mainnet. Around 17.7 million users completed KYC verification. The network supports more than 300 mainnet applications and 421,000 active nodes.

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The Map of Pi lists 148,000 sellers and 2.1 million local users. Moreover, users have staked over 111 million Pi to support app rankings. Despite this growth, price performance has not mirrored adoption.

Technical Outlook for Pi Network (PI)

Key levels remain clearly defined for Pi Network as price trades inside a broader corrective structure. On the 4-hour chart, PI continues to compress below the 200 EMA, signaling cautious momentum.

Upside levels: Immediate resistance sits at $0.1682–$0.1698, where the EMA cluster converges. A sustained break above this zone could open the door toward $0.1776. Beyond that, $0.1811, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci level, stands as the next major hurdle. If bullish momentum strengthens, price could revisit $0.1948, the 0.786 Fib rejection zone.

Downside levels: Initial support rests at $0.1534, a recent demand area. Below that, $0.1497 marks the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement. A failure to defend this region increases the probability of a retest of $0.1304, the major swing low. A breakdown there would confirm continuation of the broader downtrend.

Resistance ceiling: The 200 EMA and the $0.1698 zone represent the key level to reclaim for medium-term stabilization. Without acceptance above this cluster, rallies may remain corrective.

Technically, Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, reflecting volatility compression. This setup often precedes expansion in either direction. However, the structure currently favors a bearish bias unless buyers reclaim higher structure levels.

Will Pi Network Reverse Higher?

Pi’s short-term outlook depends on whether bulls can defend $0.1534 while building pressure against the $0.1698 resistance cluster. Stronger inflows and reduced sell pressure from upcoming token unlocks could support recovery toward $0.1776 and $0.1811.

Conversely, a decisive break below $0.1534 would likely shift focus back to $0.1304. For now, PI trades at a pivotal level, where technical compression and supply dynamics will determine the next directional move.