CAVA Stock Forecast: Surges 21% on Q4 Beat, Bold 2026 Plan

Shares of CAVA Group, Inc. surged 21.8% to $82.58 as of late morning trading after the company delivered a fourth-quarter earnings beat and issued a stronger-than-expected 2026 outlook. 

The sharp move pushed the fast-casual chain firmly into focus. What sparked such a powerful reaction in a single session?

Earnings Beat Brings In Positive Momentum

CAVA reported fourth-quarter revenue of about $272.8 million, exceeding expectations. GAAP earnings per share reached $0.04, also topping consensus estimates. Revenue grew 21.2% in the quarter and 55.5% over the past two years.

For the full year, revenue climbed 22.5% to exceed $1 billion for the first time. Over a two-year period, revenue expanded 63.1%. Adjusted EBITDA reached $152.8 million, up 21% from 2024, while GAAP net income totaled $63.7 million.

Fourth-quarter same-restaurant sales rose 0.5%, while full-year same-restaurant sales increased 4.0%. On a two-year basis, comparable sales accelerated 170 basis points to 21.7%.

Investors appeared to respond not only to the beat but also to management’s tone. Leadership described 2025 as a milestone year that marked a transition into what it called a large-scale, sustainable growth enterprise.

2026 Outlook Fuels Confidence

Guidance often drives stock reactions more than past performance. CAVA projected 3% to 5% same-store sales growth for 2026, a range that exceeded some market expectations.

The company also plans to open 74 to 76 net new restaurants. That expansion builds on the 72 net openings completed in 2025, including 24 in the fourth quarter alone. CAVA ended the year with 439 locations across 28 states and Washington, D.C.

Management targets at least 1,000 restaurants by 2032. New restaurant productivity in 2025 remained above 100%, with average annual volumes trending above $3 million. For 2026, guidance assumes about 90% productivity for new units.

Does that pace of expansion signal confidence in demand? Leadership pointed to strength across income cohorts and geographies. Executives also cited improving consumer behavior despite weather disruptions during the quarter.

Margins, Technology, And Balance Sheet Strength

Restaurant-level profit margin reached 21.4% in the fourth quarter. For 2026, management expects restaurant-level margins between 23.7% and 24.2%. However, new menu items such as pomegranate-glazed salmon could create roughly a 100-basis-point margin headwind.

CAVA continues to invest in operations and technology. Kitchen display systems now operate in 370 locations, supporting efficiency and consistency across stores.

The company finished the quarter with no debt and $393 million in cash and investments. Free cash flow totaled $26.1 million for the year. That balance sheet flexibility provides room to fund expansion without relying on external financing.

Bigger Question - Should You Buy Now?

Year to date, CAVA shares have gained more than 40%, far outpacing the broader market. Over three years, the stock has returned nearly 97%, compared with roughly 74% for the S&P 500. Still, the stock has remained down about 16% over the past 52 weeks.

So what does this surge represent? A turning point or a short-term reaction? The earnings report delivered clear revenue growth, expanding margins, and aggressive expansion targets. Now, everybody watches whether traffic trends and new restaurant productivity sustain this momentum.

For now, the market has spoken. CAVA’s results and outlook reshaped the narrative in a single morning, and that shows a bright outlook and future expectations for the stock company.