The 23-Month Bear Market Theory Faces a Test in February

Bitcoin has just recorded its first green weekly candle after five consecutive red weeks. This move marks a notable recovery following a prolonged period of decline. Several analysts go further.

They expect the bear market may have ended in February, and a more positive phase may have already begun.

After months of heavy capital outflows from the market, new positive signals have emerged. These signals strengthen that scenario.

Why the 23-Month Bitcoin Cycle Theory?

A recent analysis by an experienced trader has caught the attention of crypto investors.

The analysis argues that Bitcoin typically bottoms exactly 23 months after its all-time high (ATH) in each cycle.

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The market has now reached precisely the 23-month mark since the most recent ATH. This timing aligns perfectly with the previous cycle pattern.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt described this observation as a stronger argument than many other market narratives. The pattern suggests that the bear market could end in February. It also indicates that a recovery could begin next month.

Yesterday, total market capitalization rebounded by 6%. It increased from $2.19 trillion to $2.32 trillion. This recovery reflects growing investor optimism. Many now see opportunity after Bitcoin and altcoin prices fell sharply.

In addition, Google Trends data shows that searches for “Buy Bitcoin” have reached their highest level since 2021. This trend signals the arrival of new investors.

However, other analysts consider this scenario premature. They believe the market needs at least six more months before a sustainable recovery can occur. They base this view on historical on-chain data models.

Moreover, stablecoin net flows into exchanges remained negative in the final week of February. This data may weaken the argument for a 23-month bear market.

Leon Waidmann, Head of Research at Lisk, explained that stablecoin flows show more coins leaving exchanges than entering them. This trend indicates that buying pressure remains insufficient to support a sustained Bitcoin rally.

Although the market has rebounded after several weeks of decline, it may need clearer confirmation before declaring the bear market over. A recent analysis from BeInCrypto identifies the $70,000 level as a key threshold under current conditions. Bitcoin must reclaim and hold this level to continue moving higher.