Fed on hold as core PCE surprises higher – Nordea

Jan von Gerich at Nordea notes that US data flow has been light, but a December upside surprise in core PCE suggests price pressures may be easing more slowly than CPI implies. He argues this supports the Federal Reserve staying on hold, and Nordea does not expect further rate cuts even after Kevin Warsh replaces Jerome Powell.

Sticky inflation backs steady Fed policy

“Late last week, there was an upside surprise in the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE, and though the data were for the month of December compared to the latest CPI figure for January, price pressures may not be falling quite as rapidly as suggested by the CPI data, which will support the Fed on hold for now.”

“The Fed took a more balanced stance towards the labour market risks already at the January meeting and can afford to retain a wait-and-see attitude for now.”

“We do not expect any further cuts from the central bank, including when Kevin Warsh is set to take over from Jerome Powell.”

“Risks remain tilted towards further rate cuts, though.”

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)