Bitcoin Bull Market May Restart If $74.5K Is Broken

Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded 7.45% over the past two days after dropping to $62,400 on Tuesday, below a key onchain price support. Despite the bounce, holders who bought six months to two years ago remain at an average cost of $74,500, a level that now stands as a potential inflection point.

As BTC moves higher, the concentration of supply around $74,500 stands as a key test for the current trend; a decisive reclaim of that level may signal demand and a shift in short-term market structure.

Why $74,500 matters to Bitcoin bulls

Bitcoin’s realized price tracks the average onchain acquisition cost for a given UTXO age band. For coins aged 18 to 24 months, that level stands near $64,200.

Crypto analyst Anıl noted that Bitcoin tested this threshold and reclaimed it by the daily close on Tuesday, keeping the zone intact for now.

Cost basis levels act as psychological pivots and when the price trades below them, investors face unrealized losses and the risk of distribution increases. A sustained position above the band tends to reduce investor stress and encourages BTC re-accumulation. 

Expanding the lens to BTC UTXOs aged six months to two years captures investors from the prior cycle’s consolidation and breakout phases. The realized price for these cohorts is near $74,500, which is well above the current price.

The cohort’s MVRV ratio, which compares market value to realized value, now sits at 0.88. A reading below 1 signals that the group is, on average, holding at a loss.

As Bitcoin fell below $74,500, investors who bought six months to two years ago moved into unrealized losses, turning that level into an important profitability threshold.

A sustained move back above $74,500 places much of this group back in aggregate profit, which may ease sell-side pressure from holders looking to exit near their breakeven price.

BTC long-term supply climbs to three-month high

Onchain supply data from CryptoQuant shows that the long-term holder balance is back near 14 million BTC (13.96 million) after falling to a multi-year low on Nov. 21, 2025. The recovery in the aged supply points to continued coin dormancy despite recent volatility.

If investors who bought six months to two years ago choose to hold and absorb selling near their average entry price, the supply sitting from $74,500 to $100,000 may thin out more quickly.

A sustained rally above $74,500 may push a large portion of these coins back into profit, potentially shifting focus toward liquidity near $100,000. 

Related: GD Culture Group board authorizes Bitcoin treasury sales

BTC realized cap and capital flows remain flat

An uptick in BTC’s realized cap, which measures the aggregate value of coins based on their last onchain movement price, may also signal a trend shift.

The metric is holding near cycle highs, though its rate of expansion has slowed. The realized cap net position change has compressed toward neutral or 0%, signaling that capital inflows are negligible.

While the realized cap remains near all-time highs, it is trending lower, indicating a slowing pace of new capital entering at the higher cost basis levels.

Historically, late bear market phases tend to show flat or contracting realized cap, while early recoveries begin with stabilization before acceleration. A renewed expansion in the net position change back toward the 2%–4% range may provide clearer confirmation that fresh capital is reentering and that accumulation is on the rise.

Related: Bitcoin’s upcoming $10.5B options expiry may end bear market: Here’s how