Can Gold Outperform BTC Amid US–Iran Conflict?

The United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran today, leading to dips across risk assets and lifting traditional hedges. After the attacks, the Gold vs. Bitcoin talks have increased as the bitcoin price today slipped below $64,000 while the gold price surged by 4% to $5,450. 

Gold vs. Bitcoin Reaction Splits After U.S.–Iran Strikes

Cryptocurrencies erased nearly $70 billion in market value following the attacks, with the BTC price sliding toward $63,000. Meanwhile, gold-backed tokens gained more than 3% as traders sought safety. The difference increased the gold vs. Bitcoin contrast within hours.

As Coingape reported, Bitcoin’s panic selling increased as U.S.–Iran tensions rose. Derivatives markets absorbed $1.8 billion in aggressive sell volume within one hour. That surge in selling pressure deepened concerns of a broader Bitcoin crash.

The BTC price has recently been forming lower highs and lower lows on short-term time frames, as per TradingView data. A breakdown in early February pushed Bitcoin toward a capitulation zone near $60,000. 

Source: TradingView

However, recovery attempts remain weak below the $70,000 resistance range. Immediate support now is between $63,000 and $60,000. BTC price must reclaim $68,000 to $70,000 to shift near-term momentum. 

BTC-Gold Ratio Hits 14-Month Mark

As volatility increases, analyst Crypto Tice noted a historical rhythm in the BTC/gold ratio. He noted that in 2014, 2018, and 2022, the ratio bottomed about 14 months after a peak. In 2026, that 14-month window has appeared again.

According to Crypto Tice, the BTC/Gold ratio tracks risk appetite versus safety demand. He stated that extended BTC price underperformance against gold often marks an exhaustion phase. However, he stressed that time alignment alone does not confirm a reversal.

He added that confirmation would require momentum divergence and structural higher lows. Without those signals, symmetry remains only a condition. For now, the gold vs. Bitcoin balance depends on whether relative strength shifts.

War Hedge Debate Intensifies

Journalist Clem Chambers said gold continues grinding higher as a reliable war hedge amid U.S.–Iran tensions. He argued that gold acts as a clearer indicator of escalation than Bitcoin. He also noted that wild swings in Bitcoin reflect market fragility during conflict.

Data cited by Rand Group shows gold rising from $3,000 to $5,278 since the first Israel–Iran war in June 2025. Over the same period, Bitcoin crashed from its highs after these tensions. As a result, the gold price narrative strengthened.

However, Tolimanu on X warned that fear-driven rallies can fade. He referenced the Russia–Ukraine invasion, when the gold price surge reversed after a double top. In the current gold vs. Bitcoin standoff, both assets now face a decisive test under escalating tensions.