Nvidia Stock Forecast: Top Catalysts for NVDA Shares in March

Key Insights

• Nvidia stock price has remained in a narrow range this year.
• It will react to key earnings by some top companies like Broadcom and Oracle this month.
• The stock will also react to key earnings by companies like GTC and Mobile World Congress.

Nvidia stock price ended February in the red, even after top clients published strong financial results and boosted their capital expenditure plans for the year. It also retreated after publishing strong financial results and a large investment in OpenAI. This article explores some of the top catalysts for the NVDA stock price in March this year.

Nvidia Stock Price to React to Oracle and Broadcom Earnings

One major catalyst for Nvidia’s stock price is the upcoming earnings from Broadcom and Oracle, which will provide more information about the artificial intelligence industry. Broadcom, a company with a market capitalization of over $1.57 trillion, will publish its financial results on Wednesday this week, while Oracle will release its numbers on March 10.

Historically, results from these top companies have had a major impact on Nvidia and the broader stock market. For example, these shares tumbled in December after Oracle published its financial results, raising concerns about data center financing.

Still, on the positive side, Nvidia released strong financial results last week, with its revenue rising by over 72% to $68 billion. It also boosted its guidance for the current quarter and financial year.

Also, TSMC published strong numbers and hinted that its demand was soaring. This is notable because it counts Nvidia among its biggest clients. Top Nvidia customers, including Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Google, and Amazon, have pledged to spend over $650 billion in capital expenditures this year.

Mobile World Congress and GTC AI Conference

The other major catalyst for the Nvidia stock price is the upcoming events like Mobile World Congress (MWC) and the Nvidia GTC AI Conference in San Jose.

Senior Nvidia executives, including the heads of telecoms, will address the Mobile World Congress event.

GTC will be the most important event this month as it will gather top leaders in the AI industry at the GTC Campus. Historically, Nvidia has used GTC to showcase new products and make major announcements that may impact its stock.

Potential US Clearance of H200 Chips to China

Nvidia stock price will react to the potential approval of chips sales to China, the biggest semiconductor company in the world.

China has already approved some companies, such as Alibaba, ByteDance, and Tencent, to begin buying H200 chips from Nvidia.

The only limit has been the US, which is conducting a review on companies that can buy chips from Nvidia. Already, the Trump administration has added Alibaba to the Entity list for its support of the Chinese military, meaning it may not be able to purchase these chips.

Final approval for companies to start buying US chips would be good for Nvidia stock, given the market opportunity. Jensen Huang believes that the country may have the capacity to spend over $50 billion a year on chips.

Wall Street analysts believe that Nvidia will make $365 billion in revenue this year, an increase of 70% from what it made last year. These estimates don’t include sales to China. As such, approval means sales growth will be much higher.

Nvidia Share Price Technical Analysis

Technicals will also affect NVDA stock performance this month. As the chart below shows, the stock has remained inside a narrow rank between $170 and $197 this year. It attempted to cross the upper channel boundary after earnings failed, leading to a strong retreat to $174 today.

At the same time, chat stock has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, which often leads to a strong bearish breakdown.

Therefore, a drop below the key support level at $170, the neckline of the head-and-shoulders chart pattern will point to more downside, potentially to the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at $150.

On the other hand, a move above the channel’s upper boundary will signal further gains, potentially to the all-time high of $212.

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