Morning Minute: CFTC Chair Says U.S. Perpetual Futures Are Coming

Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack.

GM!

Today’s top news:

• Crypto majors surge 4-6% overnight; BTC at $71k
• CFTC chair says perps are coming to the US within the next month
• Trump accused the banks of undermining the Genius Act and stalling the Clarity Act
• Trump’s American Bitcoin leans into BTC mining while major miners pivot to AI
• Saylor’s STRC sets new daily record, trades enough to buy 1,016 BTC

🏛️ CFTC Chair Says U.S. Perpetual Futures Are Coming

The regulator who exiled perps from America just handed the keys back.

But who stands to benefit the most?

📌 What Happened

CFTC Chairman Mike Selig, alongside SEC Chair Paul Atkins, said his agency is “working towards getting perpetual futures, true perpetual futures here in the U.S. within the next month or so.”

Guidance is expected imminently along with a more formal rulemaking process.

For those unfamiliar, perpetual futures are contracts with no expiration date that let traders hold leveraged crypto exposure indefinitely. And they have become the dominant instrument in global crypto derivatives.

They represent over 90% of global crypto derivatives volume, despite being functionally banned for U.S. users since the prior administration.

Selig said plainly: “The prior administration drove a lot of these firms and the liquidity offshore.” He’s trying to bring it back.

🗣️ What They’re Saying

Selig: “As regulators, we don’t want to be enforcing firms to rely on old tech and be stuck in the past. Many firms want to move onchain.”

“Question: if the main purpose of hyperliquid is for US users to trade perpetual swaps without kyc and the US legalizes perpetual swaps is that good or bad?” – Goodalexander, on X

🧠 Why It Matters

So what does this mean for the onchain perps leader Hyperliquid?

The bull case for HYPE: Regulatory legitimacy for perps is a rising tide.

If the CFTC formally blesses perpetual futures as a product category, it validates the entire market. Institutional capital that has been sitting on the sidelines, unwilling to touch offshore or decentralized venues, now has a potential on-ramp.

That demand doesn’t all flow to Coinbase or Kraken. Hyperliquid is the most liquid onchain perps venue on the planet, with all the open interest ($11b+) and all of the onchain action. And it’s getting major attention already for its 24/7 markets (especially useful in weekend war scenarios).

For traders who want onchain, self-custodial, non-KYC’d access to perps, Hyperliquid is the primary option. And the CFTC can’t regulate Hyperliquid directly.

The bear case for HYPE: Everything that made Hyperliquid valuable was the absence of legitimate U.S. alternatives.

The moment Coinbase Advanced, Kraken, or a CME-affiliated venue lists BTC and ETH perps for U.S. institutional users with CFTC clearing, the narrative shifts and their advantage goes away.

Institutional allocators don’t want to self-custody on a DeFi protocol. They want prime brokerage relationships, regulated counterparties, and audited infrastructure.

Hyperliquid offers none of that.

What the CFTC is likely to prescribe: conservative leverage caps, KYC/AML requirements, transparent funding rate methodology, and real-time surveillance. That’s not Hyperliquid’s product.

Regulated U.S. perps could also tighten spreads on the most liquid pairs, potentially compressing Hyperliquid’s fee revenue on BTC and ETH, its highest-volume markets.

So where does this leave us?

Perps volume is likely to go up and to the right. Many believe it is truly a better product than the options product in TradFi.

The question is who captures the majority of that increase and does it go onchain, offchain or both.

My gut is both, and Hyperliquid continues to dominate onchain and other centralized providers like Coinbase likely win some as well.

But Hyperliquid wins the most…

🌎 Macro Crypto and Markets

• Crypto majors are big green after huge overnight gains; BTC +4% at $71k; ETH +3% at $2,050; SOL +5% at $89.60; HYPE +1% at $32.60
• KITE (+21%), SPX (+11%) and Aero (+11%) led top movers
• Trump posted on Truth Social that banks are “threatening and undermining” the GENIUS Act and holding the CLARITY Act “hostage”
• Iranian crypto exchanges logged $10.3M in outflows between February 28 and March 2 following the US-Israeli airstrikes
• Saylor’s STRC closed above $100 with 1.82M shares sold, raising enough capital for Saylor to buy 1,016 Bitcoin (a new daily record)
• Vitalik shared thoughts on Ethereum’s place in the world and what good is has caused, promising to focus future efforts into building a “sanctuary tech ecosystem”
• Tether committed $6.4M to Swiss city Lugano continuing its bitcoin adoption partnership with the municipality that’s become a test case for city-level BTC integration
• Bridge and Visa are expanding stablecoin-linked Visa card issuance globally, building on the Latin America pilot launched last April

Corporate Treasuries & ETFs

Meme Coin Tracker

• Meme majors were mostly green; DOGE +3%, SHIB +4%, PEPE +4%, TRUMP -1%, PENGU +3%, SPX +11%, FARTCOIN +5%
• memecoin (+69%) and USELESS (+17%) led notable movers
• The Venice AI model was removed from OpenClaw’s highlighted provider list (VVV -8%)

💰 Token, Airdrop & Protocol Tracker

🚚 What is happening in NFTs?

• NFT leaders were slightly green; Punks even at 29.9 ETH, Pudgy +1% at 4.5 ETH, BAYC +2% at 6 ETH; Hypurr’s even at 455 HYPE
• New project The Nibbles saw 234 ETH in volume and opened at a 0.0364 ETH floor
• The CryptoPunks app was updated to allow USDC purchases for the first time