Bitcoin enters cycle’s most frustrating phase as supply in loss hits 45%

Bitcoin (BTC) price could be entering its most frustrating phase of the 2026 bear market as its supply in loss hits 45% on Wednesday, March 11.

The midterm bearish outlook for Bitcoin has been exaggerated by its rising supply in losses, which has historically triggered further selloff. Currently, the supply of BTC in losses hovered between 40% and 45%, but CryptoQuant’s data shows a historic bottom formed after this supply surged above 50%. 

Bitcoin suffers rising selling pressure 

The midterm bullish outlook for BTC has continued to look bleak as long-term investors realize losses, as revealed by data from CryptoQuant. Notably, Bitcoin’s long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which shows coins sent on-chain are sold in profit or loss, dropped below 1.

Historically, if the BTC’s long-term holder SOPR dropped below 1, the cohorts’ conviction dropped and catalyzed bearish sentiment in the subsequent months.

Moreover, the flagship coin has suffered weak demand from investors after a failed positive demand in February, according to data from CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics platform.

Midterm BTC price prediction

Bitcoin price has signaled midterm bearish sentiment after it was rejected again above $70,790 on Tuesday to trade at about $69,613 at press time.

From a technical analysis standpoint, BTC price could be very close to its near market bottom after getting trapped in a falling trend in the past few months, according to trading expert 0xChiefy on X.

As such, this crypto trader believes that the BTC price will likely drop to $45,000 before rebounding towards its all-time high. The midterm bearish outlook for BTC price will, however, be invalidated if the flagship coin rebounds above $100,000.