Only 25% of Bitcoin Price Movements Structurally Related to Stocks Says NYDIG Research Head ⋆ ZyCrypto

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Financial services firm NYDIG faulted recent reports linking Bitcoin (BTC) to software stocks amid a market slide. Heightened macro events and global risk factors were cited rather than structural indicators.

Only 25% of Stocks Correlate With Bitcoin

In a recent market note, Greg Cipolaro, Head of Research at NYDIG, attributed Bitcoin’s convergence with stocks to imminent market factors. Previously, industry analysts concluded that there was a strong correlation between the two markets after prices moved in tandem across several cycles.

After closely monitoring price swings, tech-heavy markets seemed to perform when Bitcoin had a strong bull case. This was closely followed by an upward swing in crypto stocks.

These assets are influenced by digital assets and mice in tandem with crypto prices. While this position remained at the fore of arguments, Cipolaro and other experts pointed to similar Artificial Intelligence (AI) impacts among others. 

“While the visual fit of their indexed prices is compelling, the conclusion that Bitcoin and software equities have structurally converged, or that they share common exposure to themes such as AI or quantum risk, is overstated…. More plausibly reflects shared exposure to the current macro regime, specifically long-duration, liquidity-sensitive risk assets.”

Since Q3 2025, this correlation has spiked, driving sentiment, but other stocks have moved similarly, so it is not limited to tech companies. According to him, only 25% of Bitcoin’s price movements are structurally related to stocks.

Macro-economic drivers remain the largest influence on Bitcoin this year. The sharp 35% plummet between December and February shows, and subsequent institutional investor panic supports Cipolaro’s views.

While massive funds flowed out of crypto products like spot ETFs, stocks moved sideways, while some recorded gains. The ‘Bitcoin-stock correlation’ also didn’t slow massive sales by treasury-holding companies, which were largely responsible for the previous all-time high. 

Recently, speculation has increased, and market projections have strengthened due to the war in Iran. The military intervention sparked early fears among traders as the global oil supply was threatened.

After a week of growing tensions, the Bitcoin price has seemingly found balance with bulls anticipating a steady recovery over time. United States software stocks surged on Friday, highlighting the macro impact on Bitcoin and tech stocks, not necessarily on-chart structure. 

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price moved above $70,331, representing a 0.5% plunge in the last seven days, while the wider crypto market gained 1% in the same period.